Tea: Criticality

Low risk for drinkers, high stakes for growers

What this tab covers How exposed economies are to a supply disruption: the EU, US and India listings, the concentration score, and a quantified exposure for the US, EU, India, China, Japan, Latin America, the Middle East and Australia. Where the EU scored it, a chart of supply risk against economic importance, with import reliance, recycling input and substitutes.

Exposure by region

Region	Exposure	Share of world output	Share of world imports	Share of world exports	Net trade (US$)	On own critical list	Position
US	High	0.0%	11.0%	1.4%	−$481.3 m	No	Net importer with no commercial production; 11.0% of world import value in 2024 (Comtrade).
EU	High	0.0%	19.9%	10.4%	−$295.5 m	No	Net importer; Poland and Germany re-export blended tea (3.7% and 3.5% of world export value in 2024).
India	Low	18.8%	1.5%	11.2%	+$725.4 m	No	Second-largest producer (18.8% of world leaf in 2024) and fourth-largest exporter by value (11.2%), with record export volume of 285.5 million kg in 2025.
China	Low	49.7%	3.0%	19.7%	+$1.26 bn	No	Largest producer (49.7% of world leaf in 2024) and largest exporter by value (19.7%), mostly green tea.
Japan	High	1.0%	3.1%	3.4%	+$81.2 m	No	Produces green tea at home and imports some; not a top-six importer by value in 2024.
Latin America	Low	1.1%	1.1%	0.9%	+$5.73 m	no list	No Latin American country is among the top six tea exporters or importers by value in 2024 (Comtrade).
Middle East	High	0.2%	11.9%	1.4%	−$521.9 m	no list	Major importer: Saudi Arabia 5.8% and Egypt 5.2% of world import value in 2024; Turkey and Iran also grow their own.
Australia	High	0.0%	2.4%	0.0%	−$127.5 m	No	Small importer; no significant production.

Exposure rating: High when the region is a net importer whose import share is at least three times its share of world output (or, for farm goods, it produces under 70% of what it consumes); Medium for other net importers (or 70-95% self-sufficiency), raised to High when world supply is highly concentrated in another country; Low for net exporters or self-sufficient regions. Net importer status uses tonnage where reported, otherwise value. Output: FAOSTAT, 2024. Trade: UN Comtrade 2024 (EU = sum of member states, including intra-EU trade). Critical lists: US 2025, EU 2024/1252, India 2023, China 2016 strategic minerals, Japan METI, Australia 2024.

Tea is on neither the US 2025 nor the India 2023 critical list. For consumers, many origins and easy substitutes limit risk. For producers it matters greatly: tea is a large export earner and employer in Kenya and Sri Lanka, and plantation labour conditions remain contested. Climate risk is rising, with drought and erratic rain hitting yields in East Africa and South Asia. Sri Lanka's abrupt 2021 ban on chemical fertilisers, which hurt its tea crop, shows how policy shocks can damage supply.

EU 2023 Not assessed US 2025 list No India 2023 list No Production HHI 2,953 highly concentrated