Tellurium: Cycles

From solar-driven glut to an export-licence squeeze

Tellurium swings between glut and squeeze. In the late 2010s it was oversupplied as silicon solar outgrew CdTe, and fewer studies called it critical (Hayes & McCullough, pdf p. 7). US warehouse prices held at about $70 to $79/kg over 2021–24. In 2025 China required end-user checks, with export licences taking about 45 days. The European price jumped 84% to about $150/kg, and the US price 60% to about $120/kg. Demand leans on CdTe module makers, and the leading US producer opened a fifth domestic plant in 2025.

US price, Tellurium 99.95%, FOB US warehouse (Argus)

Super-cycles in tellurium

Tellurium prices follow the fortunes of one industry, CdTe solar, laid over a fixed by-product supply. When First Solar scaled up in 2007-2011, prices quadrupled to a peak of about $350/kg, then fell as the solar market became oversupplied and silicon took share. Through the late 2010s and early 2020s prices sat around $65-80/kg despite forecasts of a deficit. In 2025 Chinese end-user checks on exports split the market and lifted European prices 84% to about $150/kg. Long-run, prices depend on whether CdTe keeps a niche against silicon.

1. 2007-2011

   CdTe solar scaled up quickly; First Solar's capacity reached 2.4 GW by 2011 while tellurium supply was stuck near 500 t a year.

   Annual average rose from $82/kg (2007) to $211/kg (2008) and a peak of $349/kg (2011) (USGS via Earth magazine 2018; USGS Circular 1365).

2. 2012-2024

   The solar market became oversupplied in 2012 and prices dropped sharply. Industry forecasts in 2018 of a 2020 deficit of up to 370 t did not lift prices, as China's copper refining expansion raised tellurium output.

   Argus Rotterdam 99.99% metal was $64-70/kg in May 2022; US warehouse averaged $69.72/kg (2021) to $74.77 (2024) (Argus; USGS MCS 2026).

3. 2025

   From February 2025 Chinese exporters had to verify end users, with licences taking about 45 days. Europe was squeezed and US spot metal was drawn there.

   Europe average rose 84% to about $150/kg from $81.54 (2024); US warehouse rose 60% to about $120/kg (USGS MCS 2026).

What drives the cycle

• CdTe module build-out. Solar takes about 70% of tellurium; First Solar's US capacity heading to 14 GW sets demand.
• Copper refining in China. China's electrolytic copper capacity rose nearly 75% in ten years, lifting its tellurium output to 80% of the world.
• Chinese export licensing. End-user checks since February 2025 created a separate, tighter market outside China.
• Recovery circuits at Western refineries. New circuits such as Kennecott (2022) add non-Chinese supply cheaply.
• Tellurium intensity per GW. Thinner layers cut use from about 69 t/GW (2011) towards a best case of 17 t/GW (NREL 2012).

Metrics to track