Zinc: Cycles

Prices near the top of a ten-year range

Zinc averaged $4,021 a tonne in September 2026, up 37% on a year earlier and 32% on five years earlier. The ten-year range runs from $1,520 to $4,360, so prices are near the top. In real 2010 dollars the 2025 average was $2,470, below the 2017 peak of $2,971. Zinc demand follows steel, construction and cars, and its use per unit of GDP rises then falls as economies mature (Tilton & Guzmán). Supply responds slowly because new mines take years. The study group forecast a small 2025 surplus of 85,000 tonnes, yet prices still rose.

Zinc price

Chart: Zinc monthly price

Chart: Zinc annual real price

US price, North American Special High Grade zinc (LME cash plus premium, Platts)

Super-cycles in zinc

Zinc follows the steel and construction cycle, with sharp spikes when mine closures coincide with strong demand. Its booms are short and violent because the market is small, about 13-14 Mt a year, and refined stocks can drain quickly. The World Bank monthly average price rose from under $400/t in early 1973 to $4,405/t in December 2006, the high since 2000, and stood at $4,021/t in September 2026. In real 2010 dollars the 2025 average ($2,470/t) was below 2017 ($2,971/t), so the long-run real trend is broadly flat with spikes.

1. 1973-1975

   The general commodity boom around the 1973 oil shock, followed by recession.

   World Bank monthly average rose from $387/t (Jan 1973) to $1,782/t (May 1974), then fell to $686/t (Dec 1975)

2. 1988-1993

   Strong late-1980s demand drained stocks. In 1991-92 Marc Rich + Co, with Asturiana de Zinc and Metallgesellschaft, tried to corner the LME, at one point holding over 90% of LME stocks; when Metallgesellschaft sold, prices fell more than a quarter in two months (Blas and Farchy 2021).

   World Bank monthly average from $876/t (Feb 1988) to $1,962/t (Mar 1989); down to $874/t (Sep 1993)

3. 2005-2008

   Chinese galvanised steel demand outran mine supply and LME stocks fell sharply, then the 2008 crisis hit.

   World Bank monthly average from $1,194/t (Jul 2005) to $4,405/t (Dec 2006), down to $1,101/t (Dec 2008)

4. 2016-2018

   Mine closures and producer cuts after the 2015 slump, plus Chinese environmental curbs on mining, tightened concentrate supply.

   World Bank monthly average from $1,520/t (Jan 2016) to $3,533/t (Feb 2018)

5. 2021-2026

   The 2022 European energy crisis raised smelter power costs, then Chinese refining capacity grew and US mine output fell as Red Dog aged (USGS).

   World Bank monthly averages: peak $4,360/t (Apr 2022), low $2,360/t (Feb 2024), $4,021/t (Sep 2026)

What drives the cycle

• Steel output and galvanising demand. About 60% of zinc coats steel, so car, construction and infrastructure cycles, above all in China, drive demand.
• Mine depletion and closures. Large mines such as Red Dog are ageing; when several close at once, concentrate runs short before new projects arrive.
• Smelter power costs. Electrowinning is power intensive, so energy price spikes close smelters, especially in Europe.
• Treatment charges and by-product credits. TCs set the split of value between miners and smelters; silver and lead credits change which mines survive low prices.
• Chinese refining capacity and policy. China is the largest miner and refiner and its environmental and capacity policies swing world balances (ILZSG 2025 forecast an 85 kt refined surplus).

Metrics to track