Biodiesel (FAME): Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
Biodiesel (FAME) is made by reacting vegetable oils or animal fats with methanol, giving glycerine as a by-product. Feedstock oil is most of the cost, so its price tracks soybean, rapeseed and palm oil, while diesel prices and mandates set demand.
Proxy Soybean oil price US$/t · monthly, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026There is no free public price for Biodiesel (FAME) itself, so this tab uses the closest public series as a stand-in. Read the numbers as an indication, not as the price of this exact item.
What its price moves with
Selected linkBiodiesel (FAME) and Palm oil
Monthly changes 0.64 moderate correlation 12-month changes 0.88 strong correlation Last 5 years 0.46 monthly changes Lead or lag none No clear lead or lag Price function, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 Biodiesel (FAME) ≈ 1.80 × (Palm oil)0.94 R² 0.85 On this fit, a 10% higher palm oil price goes with a 9.3% higher Biodiesel (FAME) price over the long run. Units: US$/t and $/mt.Chart: Biodiesel (FAME) and Palm oil prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, log scale
Both prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size.Chart: Biodiesel (FAME) price against Palm oil price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line
Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2006), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic.Palm oil is the main biodiesel feedstock in Indonesia and Malaysia, where mandates absorb much of the crop. Monthly moves correlate at 0.64 and yearly at 0.88 with the soybean oil proxy, as vegetable oils substitute closely.
moderate co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsRapeseed oil is the main European biodiesel feedstock. Rapeseed correlates at 0.73 for monthly moves and 0.93 for yearly moves with the soybean oil proxy, reflecting tight substitution across vegetable oils.
strong co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsMethanol reacts with the oil to form methyl esters, so every tonne of biodiesel needs it. Against the organic chemicals proxy, monthly moves correlate at 0.24 and yearly at 0.54, with the biodiesel proxy leading by about 2 months.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsEvery batch of biodiesel yields crude glycerine, which is refined for soaps, medicines and food. Biodiesel booms flood the glycerine market, so glycerine prices tend to fall when biodiesel output rises.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.Renewable diesel and SAF compete with biodiesel for oils and waste fats. The diesel proxy correlates at 0.48 for monthly moves and 0.73 for yearly moves, as both biofuels are priced against fossil diesel.
moderate co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsBiodiesel is blended into diesel, so refinery prices set its fuel value. The refinery index correlates at 0.51 for monthly moves and 0.72 for yearly moves, as vegetable oils and fuels both follow the energy cycle.
moderate co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsHow to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.