Heat-transfer fluids and heat pipes: Geopolitics and regulation

Refrigerant phase-outs, PFAS rules and Chile's nitrate grip

The politics of heat carriers centre on refrigerant chemistry: climate rules are phasing out high-GWP gases while a possible EU PFAS restriction hangs over their replacements. Salt supply and solar thermal policy matter for the high-temperature end.

Tailwinds

HFC supply cut by 94.8% from 2015 levels by 2030 and phased out by 2050, with bans on high-GWP refrigerants in new equipment, steering heat pumps towards natural refrigerants.¹²

HFCs are being phased down worldwide under the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol, and the EU rules are designed to speed that up, supporting the shift to low-GWP fluids.¹²

IRENA projected global thermal storage could grow from 234 GWh (2019) to at least 800 GWh by 2030.⁴

Rising AI-server demand for liquid-cooling parts lifted AVC's March 2026 revenue to a record NT$18 billion and Auras's to NT$3.3 billion.¹⁵

Headwinds

ECHA's risk committee adopted its opinion on the universal PFAS restriction on 2 March 2026; the socio-economic committee agreed a draft on 10 March, consulted until 25 May, and is due to give its final opinion by the end of 2026. Applications of fluorinated gases are one of 14 sectors assessed in detail, so many HFO refrigerants could be affected.¹⁴

Chemours' composition patents on R-1234yf run to the end of this decade, after which competition widens.¹³

Solar salt depends heavily on natural nitrates from northern Chile, mined from caliche and pumped from Atacama brines by SQM (company data).⁶

Refrigerant rules matter beyond cooling: heat pumps, the main tool for electrifying heat, depend on them.

Sources

1. Innovation Outlook: Thermal Energy Storage IRENA, 2020
2. Thermo-Solar Salts (company data) SQM, 2026
3. A Concise Guide to the EU F-Gas Regulation Environmental Investigation Agency, 2026
4. The Chemours Company Form 10-K for fiscal year 2025 US SEC, 2026
5. ECHA's update on the REACH restriction on PFAS (100th EFSA Advisory Forum) European Chemicals Agency, 2026
6. AI demand lifts Taiwan cooling suppliers to record monthly sales Taiwan News, 2026