Natural hydrogen: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
Natural hydrogen forms underground from reactions in iron-rich rocks; one well in Mali supplies a village. Its value would be set by the price of hydrogen from gas or electrolysis, and by drilling and purification costs.
No public price Natural hydrogen has no public monthly price series: Only one producing well; no market price.What its price moves with
Natural hydrogen would sell into the same industrial market as hydrogen made from gas. Its value depends on hydrogen prices and on whether deposits sit near refineries or fertiliser plants.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.Most hydrogen today comes from reforming natural gas, so gas prices set the benchmark natural hydrogen must beat. High gas prices improve its economics. Carbon prices on grey hydrogen add to the advantage.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.Electrolysers splitting water with clean power are the other low-carbon source. If natural hydrogen can be drilled cheaply, it could undercut electrolytic hydrogen. Both would serve the same buyers in refining and fertilisers.
No public price for electrolysers, so the link is explained in words only.Some natural hydrogen prospects also contain helium, which can be far more valuable per unit. Explorers in the US and Australia often target both gases. Helium sales could pay for drilling.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.Exploring for natural hydrogen uses oil and gas methods: seismic surveys, rigs and well casing. Drilling costs therefore follow the oil and gas cycle. Oil and gas firms are among the early explorers.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.Ammonia makers are the largest hydrogen users, so a cheap local hydrogen source would cut fertiliser costs. Deposits near ammonia plants would be worth more. Hydrogen is costly to transport far.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.How to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.