Oil and product pipelines: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
Oil pipeline tariffs are regulated, often under cost-based rules or indices that adjust tariffs yearly with general inflation. Revenue depends on throughput volumes and long-term shipping contracts, not on the oil price itself.
Price index US PPI: pipeline transportation of crude oil index (BLS base period =100) · monthly, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026What its price moves with
Selected linkOil and product pipelines and Crude oil
Monthly changes 0.02 little or none correlation 12-month changes 0.04 little or none correlation Last 5 years -0.08 monthly changes Lead or lag +5 mo Crude oil tends to lead by 5 months (r 0.15) Price function, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 Oil and product pipelines ≈ 288.0 × (Crude oil)-0.04 R² 0.00 On this fit, a 10% higher crude oil price goes with a −0.4% lower oil and product pipelines price over the long run. Units: index (BLS base period =100) and $/bbl. The fit is loose, so treat the function as a rough guide.Chart: Oil and product pipelines and Crude oil prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, log scale
Both prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size.Chart: Oil and product pipelines price against Crude oil price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line
Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2006), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic.Pipelines earn a fee per barrel moved, so the oil price affects them only through volumes and new projects. The tariff index shows no relation to crude, with monthly moves correlating at 0.02, which is what regulated tariffs should look like.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsNew lines need large amounts of steel line pipe, which drives building costs and the tariffs needed to justify them. Existing tariffs do not move with steel prices, and monthly changes correlate at -0.01.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsShips, barges and trucks compete with pipelines to move crude and products, and the cheapest route wins volume. The two indices are almost unrelated, correlating at 0.10 for monthly moves, because regulators set pipeline tariffs while freight rates float.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsRefineries are the main destination for crude pipelines and the source for product lines. A refinery closure or expansion changes pipeline volumes for decades, but monthly prices are unrelated, correlating at 0.01.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsSteel line pipe is protected against corrosion by fusion-bonded epoxy and other coatings. Coatings are a small part of construction cost, and the resin proxy shows no link to pipeline tariffs, with monthly moves correlating at -0.09.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsHow to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.