Explosives and propellants: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
Industrial explosives are mostly ammonium nitrate mixed with fuel oil or made into emulsions, sold to mines and quarries. Prices follow ammonium nitrate, and so gas, plus mining demand. Rocket propellants are a separate, small market.
Price index US PPI: explosives manufacturing index · monthly, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026What its price moves with
Selected linkExplosives and propellants and Ammonium nitrate
Monthly changes 0.15 little or none correlation 12-month changes 0.60 moderate correlation Last 5 years 0.09 monthly changes Lead or lag +1 mo Ammonium nitrate tends to lead by 1 month (r 0.31) Price function, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 Explosives and propellants ≈ 33.5 × (Ammonium nitrate)0.38 R² 0.40 On this fit, a 10% higher ammonium nitrate price goes with a 3.7% higher explosives and propellants price over the long run. Units: index and index (BLS base period).Chart: Explosives and propellants and Ammonium nitrate prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, log scale
Both prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size.Chart: Explosives and propellants price against Ammonium nitrate price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line
Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2006), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic.Ammonium nitrate is the oxidiser in most commercial blasting explosives. The fertiliser proxy correlates at 0.15 for monthly moves and 0.60 for yearly moves, with ammonium nitrate leading by about a month, as supply contracts pass on costs.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsSurface coal mines are among the largest users of explosives, including in India. The coal mining index correlates at 0.15 for monthly moves and 0.47 for yearly moves, reflecting shared mining activity.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsQuarries blast rock for aggregate, so construction demand drives explosives sales. The aggregates proxy correlates at 0.21 for monthly moves overall, rising to 0.56 for monthly moves in the last five years.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsAmmonium nitrate comes from ammonia made with natural gas. The European gas price shows little monthly link to the explosives index, at 0.05, with gas leading by about four months, as costs pass through fertiliser and supply contracts.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsAluminium powder boosts energy in some explosives and in solid rocket propellants. It is a small input for most products, so the data show no link, with monthly moves at -0.08.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsSolid rocket motors use ammonium perchlorate with aluminium and a rubber binder, while liquid rockets burn kerosene, hydrogen or methane. Launch growth raises propellant demand, though it stays small next to mining.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.How to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.