Solar fuels and photosynthesis: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
Solar fuels store sunlight in chemical bonds, from crops through natural photosynthesis to hydrogen and methanol made with solar power. Their cost depends on electricity, electrolysers, carbon dioxide sources, and the fossil fuels they replace.
No public price Solar fuels and photosynthesis has no public monthly price series: Mostly at pilot scale; no market price.What its price moves with
Most solar fuel routes start by splitting water into hydrogen, either with solar power or directly with light. Their value is set by the price of hydrogen from natural gas.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.Electrolysers turn solar electricity into hydrogen and are the main cost besides power. Falling electrolyser prices are key for solar fuels to compete. Cheap solar power during the day also helps.
No public price for electrolysers, so the link is explained in words only.Hydrogen can be combined with carbon dioxide to make methanol, a liquid fuel and chemical feed. Fossil methanol from gas and coal sets the price it must match. Shipping lines are early buyers.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.Carbon-based solar fuels need a source of carbon dioxide, from industry or the air. The cost of capturing CO2 is a large part of their total cost. Cheap CO2 helps.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.Plants already turn sunlight into fuel by photosynthesis, and biomass is the cheapest solar fuel today. Artificial routes aim for higher yield per hectare. Biomass supply is limited by land and water.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.How to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.