Paper and packaging: Chokepoints and risks
Pulp and paper mills and converters making boxes, cartons, sacks and tissue
Chokepoints and risks
- New pulp capacity is concentrated in China, Brazil, Chile and Uruguay, so prices and supply depend on a few large mills1.
- India's mills rely on recycled fibre for about three quarters of output, leaving them exposed to scrap prices and import rules3.
- Imports of paper and paperboard into India rose 20% to 1.76 million tonnes in April-December 2024, with cheap virgin board from Indonesia and China squeezing domestic margins4.
- World graphic paper output fell to 84 million tonnes in 2023, its lowest since 1987, stranding older mills unless they convert to packaging6.
- Pulp and board mills need large volumes of water and steam, so drought, effluent limits and coal prices raise costs.