Pharmaceuticals: Chokepoints and risks
Drug discovery, manufacturing and distribution, from small-molecule generics to biologics
Chokepoints and risks
- About 73.7% of India's US$ 4.35 billion of API and intermediate imports in FY25 came from China, so a Chinese plant shutdown or export curb hits Indian generics6.
- A single US FDA warning letter or import alert can halt exports from a plant; the US takes over a third of India's pharma exports3.
- Sterile injectables and old antibiotics have few makers and thin margins, causing recurring shortages.
- US tariff and pricing policy (most-favoured-nation pricing, Section 232 probes) could squeeze generic margins.
- Patent cliffs and GLP-1 competition reshape innovator revenues and generic opportunities.