Material Insights · Understanding the Material World

Wholesale and retail trade: Chokepoints and risks

Distributors, warehouses and stores moving finished goods from factories to households

Chokepoints and risks

  • Payments concentration: UPI runs through one operator (NPCI) and carried about 241.6 billion transactions in 2025-26, so an outage halts Indian checkouts4.
  • Logistics costs at 7.97% of Indian GDP in 2023-24 squeeze thin retail margins when fuel or freight rates rise5.
  • Channel shift: ecommerce was forecast at about 20.5% of worldwide retail sales in 2025, pressuring store economics3.
  • Cold-chain gaps and refrigerant phase-downs raise costs and spoilage for fresh and frozen ranges.
  • Scale concentration: Walmart alone took US$ 648 billion in retail revenue in FY2023, giving the largest chains strong pricing power over suppliers1.