Acrylonitrile: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
Acrylonitrile is made by reacting propylene with ammonia and air, so those two inputs set its cost. It goes into acrylic fibre, ABS plastic, nitrile rubber and carbon fibre, and China is now the largest producer.
Proxy US PPI: other basic organic chemicals index (BLS base period) · monthly, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026There is no free public price for acrylonitrile itself, so this tab uses the closest public series as a stand-in. Read the numbers as an indication, not as the price of this exact item.
What its price moves with
Selected linkAcrylonitrile and Propylene
Monthly changes 0.29 weak correlation 12-month changes 0.64 moderate correlation Last 5 years 0.42 monthly changes Lead or lag none No clear lead or lag Price function, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 Acrylonitrile ≈ 164.2 × (Propylene)0.07 R² 0.01 On this fit, a 10% higher propylene price goes with a 0.7% higher acrylonitrile price over the long run. Units: index (BLS base period) and index (BLS base period). The fit is loose, so treat the function as a rough guide.Chart: Acrylonitrile and Propylene prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, log scale
Both prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size.Chart: Acrylonitrile price against Propylene price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line
Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2006), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic.Propylene is the larger raw material cost, and the propylene-acrylonitrile spread is the margin producers watch. The petrochemical proxy moves with the basic organics proxy at 0.29 monthly and 0.64 yearly.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsAmmonia supplies the nitrogen, so fertiliser markets and gas prices feed into acrylonitrile costs. The nitrogen fertiliser proxy moves with the basic organics proxy at 0.28 monthly and 0.74 yearly.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsABS plastic for appliances, cars and electronics is a large outlet, so consumer goods demand pulls on acrylonitrile. The broad resin index moves with the basic organics proxy at 0.32 monthly and 0.69 yearly.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsGas sets the cost of ammonia and, in the US, of the ethane-rich cracker system. European gas moves with the proxy at 0.21 monthly and 0.80 yearly, a weak monthly but strong yearly tie.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsOil sets the cost of naphtha-based propylene in Asia and Europe. Brent moves with the proxy at 0.23 monthly and 0.58 yearly, diluted because the proxy covers many other chemicals.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsHow to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.