Amino acids (lysine, methionine): Cycles

Swine fever, capacity waves and the soymeal ceiling

What this tab covers How its prices and margins move: past booms and busts with price levels, the spread or margin that the industry watches, the drivers of the cycle and the metrics to track.

Feed amino acids are commodities with deep cycles. Prices swing with Chinese capacity additions, maize costs and livestock disease. African swine fever cut China's pig herd in 2018-2019 and lysine demand with it; later waves of new Chinese capacity pushed lysine to near cash cost in 2024. Methionine cycles are set by the timing of a few large plants. The floor is Chinese cash cost (about RMB 6,800-7,000/t for lysine); the ceiling is the value of the soymeal they replace. Trade defence in the EU and possibly the US now splits markets.

The spread to watch Lysine price minus about 2.1 x maize cost

Q4 2025: RMB 9,500-10,500/t lysine minus about 2.1 x RMB 2,263/t maize (about RMB 4,750) leaves about RMB 4,750-5,750/t for processing and margin (derived from Faxian Gongchang 2026; indicative ratio).

Booms and busts

2018-2019
African swine fever cut China's pig herd sharply, reducing lysine demand while new capacity came on (indicative).
lysine prices fell to multi-year lows (indicative; numbers not public in sources reached)
2021-2022
Maize, energy and freight costs rose; amino acid prices rose with them (indicative).
World Bank maize up from $144/t (May 2020) to $348/t (Apr 2022) (maize tile)
2024
Chinese lysine capacity rose 17% to about 3.5 Mt; prices slid through the year.
lysine 98% RMB 8,500-9,200/t (Q1) to RMB 7,300-8,000/t (Q4) (Faxian Gongchang)
2025-2026
EU duties from July 2025 and firmer demand lifted Chinese prices.
lysine RMB 9,500-10,500/t (Q4 2025); forecast RMB 10,000-11,500/t in H1 2026 (Faxian Gongchang)

What drives the cycle

Chinese capacity additions. Lysine capacity rose 17% in 2024; Meihua added 600 kt in one plant.
Maize prices. Most of lysine cash cost.
Pig and poultry herds. African swine fever and avian flu change demand quickly.
Soymeal price. Amino acids are valued by the soymeal they replace; dear soymeal raises their use.
Trade defence. EU duties of 47.7-58.2% on Chinese lysine since July 2025.

Metrics to track

Metric	Why it matters	Where to track it
China lysine 98% and methionine ex-works prices	Main price signals	Chinese trade press; Faxian Gongchang
China pig herd (sow inventory)	Lysine demand	China Ministry of Agriculture
Evonik Animal Nutrition and Adisseo results	Methionine margin cycle	company reports
China lysine exports (HS 292241)	Export pressure on world prices	China Customs; UN Comtrade