Bisphenol A: Cycles

Electronics, cars and wind power drive the margin

BPA prices follow phenol and acetone, with a margin set by polycarbonate and epoxy demand. Polycarbonate tracks electronics, cars and construction; epoxy tracks coatings and wind blades. China's capacity build since 2020 has kept margins weak, and run rates fell below 70% in late 2025. Price data for BPA is mostly behind paywalls, so the cycle is best read through phenol prices and the results of integrated producers such as Covestro. The floor is set by run cuts; the ceiling by polycarbonate shortages, as in 2021.

Conversion margin over feed; recent levels not published in sources reached.

Booms and busts

1. 2021

   Post-COVID demand for electronics, cars and wind blades tightened polycarbonate and epoxy, and BPA margins were unusually high (indicative).

   not published in sources reached

2. 2023-2025

   Chinese capacity growth and weak polycarbonate demand pushed BPA down; Chinese BPA ran below 70% from September 2025 and phenol hit a five-year low (OPIS). The EU food-contact ban was adopted.

   BPA prices not published in sources reached; East China phenol CNY5,800/t in December 2025 (OPIS)

3. 2026

   Benzene costs spiked after the Hormuz disruption, squeezing phenol and BPA margins as demand stayed weak (OPIS, May 2026).

   FOB Korea benzene averaged $1,139/t in April 2026 (OPIS); BPA price not published in sources reached

What drives the cycle

• Polycarbonate demand. About 62% of BPA; follows electronics and car production.
• Epoxy demand. About 30%; coatings, laminates and wind blades.
• Phenol and acetone cost. About 85% of cash cost.
• Chinese capacity. China plans 1.91-2.14 Mt/yr of additions to 2028-2030 (GlobalData).
• Regulation. Food-contact bans reduce some can-coating and bottle demand.

Metrics to track