Epoxy resins: Cycles
A wind-power boom, then a Chinese glut
What this tab covers How its prices and margins move: past booms and busts with price levels, the spread or margin that the industry watches, the drivers of the cycle and the metrics to track.Epoxy prices follow BPA and ECH, with a margin set by coatings, electronics and wind demand. Booms come when wind installations and electronics peak together, as in 2020-2021; busts follow when Chinese capacity arrives, as in 2023-2025 when the industry ran near 50%. The floor is the cash cost of integrated Chinese plants; the ceiling is set by substitution to polyester and vinyl ester in composites and by imports. Trade remedies in 2025 have split the market into regional price zones: Europe sells at more than twice Chinese levels (Intratec).
The spread to watch LER minus (0.67 x BPA + 0.55 x ECH)Not published as a standard index. Chinese producers track it daily; SCI99 reported narrowing industrial margins in 2024-2025 as ECH fell and BPA was range-bound.
Booms and busts
- 2020-2021
China's onshore wind rush in 2020, electronics demand and the Texas freeze in February 2021 tightened supply. Chinese plants raced to add capacity.
China LER above about CNY 30,000/t at the 2021 peak (indicative, Chinese market reports)
- 2023-2024
China's capacity rose 13% in 2023 to about 3.4 Mt while demand was lukewarm. Margins narrowed and some plants delayed start-up (SCI99). Grasim's speciality chemicals were hit by lower realisations (Q3 FY2025).
not published in sources reached; world output 3.27 Mt against 6.5 Mt capacity (PRChem)
- 2025
US orders (May), EU definitive duties (July) and Indian duties (November) cut Asian exporters' access to high-price markets.
China LER about $1,940/t EXW, US export $2,080/t, Europe export $4,940/t (Nov 2025, Intratec)
- 2026
Chinese prices stayed near cost as phenol softened.
East China LER CNY 14,500-14,900/t and SER CNY 13,600-13,900/t; phenol CNY 8,450/t (10 Aug 2026, ECHEMI)
What drives the cycle
- Chinese capacity. China has about half of world capacity; each wave of new plants pushes utilisation and prices down.
- Wind installations. Epoxy is the main blade resin; Chinese and Indian wind auctions move composite demand.
- Electronics cycle. Copper-clad laminate demand follows PCB and semiconductor cycles.
- Trade remedies. US, EU and Indian duties in 2025 redirect Asian surplus to unprotected markets.
Metrics to track
| Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it |
|---|---|---|
| East China LER and SER prices | Global floor price | ECHEMI, SunSirs, SCI99 |
| BPA and ECH prices | About 80% of cost | ICIS, ECHEMI |
| DGTR, US ITA and EU trade remedy notices | Access to markets | dgtr.gov.in, trade.gov, EUR-Lex |