Glycerine: Cycles

How biodiesel mandates flood and starve the market

Glycerine prices are set by biodiesel. When mandates add biodiesel faster than demand grows, crude glycerine floods the market and prices collapse; when biodiesel output falls or shifts to HVO, refined prices spike. Refined prices are steadier than crude because consumer and pharma demand is stable and refining capacity is limited. The crude-to-refined spread and regional spreads are the key signals.

Argus, 5 Mar 2026: US vegetable refined $1,279-1,477/t against crude $419-551/t (about $800-950 spread); Europe kosher refined €1,080-1,100 against crude €610-620 (about €470-480); SE Asia refined bulk $1,250-1,280 against China crude $790-850 CFR (about $430-470, derived).

Booms and busts

1. 2006-2010

   The first biodiesel boom flooded the market with crude glycerine; synthetic glycerine plants closed and glycerine-to-epichlorohydrin plants were built (indicative).

   not retrieved

2. 2020-2021

   Covid cut biodiesel output while hand sanitiser and pharma demand rose, lifting refined prices (indicative).

   not retrieved

3. 2022-2025

   Indonesia's move to B35 and B40 raised Indonesian crude supply, while Argentina cut biodiesel output from late 2022 and US FAME lost share to HVO (Argus; biodiesel tile).

   not retrieved

4. Mar 2026

   Brazilian refined prices jumped and US crude fell; Indonesia raised its crude glycerine export levy to 10%.

   Brazil refined 99.7% $1,250-1,300/t FOB Santos (up $150-180); US crude 80% $419-551/t Midwest (Argus, 5 Mar 2026)

What drives the cycle

• Biodiesel output. Supplies about three-quarters of glycerine; Indonesia B50 would add supply, HVO growth does not.
• Chinese crude demand. China buys more than half of traded crude for refining and epichlorohydrin.
• Consumer and pharma demand. Stable base for refined grades.
• Export levies and freight. Indonesia's 10% crude levy and freight of $150-200/t to the US move regional prices.

Metrics to track