Hydrofluoric acid: Cycles

Chinese export curbs, F-gas rules and battery booms

What this tab covers How its prices and margins move: past booms and busts with price levels, the spread or margin that the industry watches, the drivers of the cycle and the metrics to track.

HF prices are rarely published outside China; they move with fluorspar and with refrigerant and battery demand. Chinese fluorspar policy has driven the big swings: export restrictions pushed prices to records around 2011-2012, a long slump followed as refrigerant rules capped demand, and from 2021 mine safety closures and battery demand tightened supply again. Refrigerant quota allocations under Kigali and the EU F-gas rules create sudden shifts. Margins of Chinese fluorochemical groups and Indian producers (SRF, Navin, GFL) show the cycle, as do US import values for fluorspar.

The spread to watch HF price minus 2.15 x acidspar minus 2.6 x sulphuric acid

The conversion margin for non-integrated plants. HF price series are not published freely, so recent levels are not available.

Booms and busts

2008-2012
China used export licences to keep fluorspar at home; a WTO ruling eased curbs from 2012.
Acidspar FOB China peaked at $440/t in mid-2012 (Roskill via fluorspar tile)
2012-2016
Flat demand and F-gas regulation hit HF and fluorspar; world fluorspar output fell from 7.3 Mt (2011) to 5.7 Mt (2016).
Acidspar FOB China $270/t in August 2015 (Roskill)
2019
Japan restricted exports of high-purity HF to South Korea in July 2019, forcing Korean chipmakers to qualify domestic and Chinese supply.
not published
2021-2025
Chinese mine closures, refrigerant transition and LiPF6 demand tightened supply.
US acid-grade fluorspar import value rose from $322/t (2021) to $470/t (2025) (USGS); US HF imports fell from 103 kt to 76 kt

What drives the cycle

Chinese fluorspar supply and policy. China mines 60% of fluorspar; safety closures and export rules move costs everywhere.
Refrigerant regulation. Kigali, EU F-gas and the US AIM Act set HFC quotas; HFO growth changes HF demand per unit.
Battery demand. LiPF6 and PVDF follow lithium-ion cell output; LiPF6 capacity exceeded 390 kt in 2024.
Semiconductor output. Electronic-grade HF demand follows wafer starts.
Sulphuric acid prices. About 2.6 t acid per t HF; the 2026 acid spike raised costs.

Metrics to track

Metric	Why it matters	Where to track it
Acidspar FOB China and CIF Rotterdam	Main input price	Fastmarkets; Argus; SMM
Chinese AHF domestic price	Main HF benchmark	SunSirs; SMM; Baiinfo
US HF import volume and value	Free trade proxy	USGS MCS
Refrigerant quota allocations	Demand driver	China MEE; EU Commission; US EPA