Hydrogen: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
Most hydrogen is made from natural gas on site at refineries and ammonia plants and never sold. Merchant hydrogen is sold on long contracts by gas companies. The series is a US index of argon and hydrogen.
Price index US PPI: argon and hydrogen index (BLS base period) · monthly, Jun 2009 to Sep 2026What its price moves with
Selected linkHydrogen and Natural gas
Monthly changes 0.05 little or none correlation 12-month changes -0.00 little or none correlation Last 5 years 0.07 monthly changes Lead or lag none No clear lead or lag Price function, Jun 2009 to Sep 2026 Hydrogen ≈ 102.2 × (Natural gas)-0.02 R² 0.01 On this fit, a 10% higher natural gas price goes with a −0.2% lower hydrogen price over the long run. Units: index (BLS base period) and $/mmbtu. The fit is loose, so treat the function as a rough guide.Chart: Hydrogen and Natural gas prices rebased to 100 at Jun 2009, log scale
Both prices rebased to 100 at Jun 2009, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size.Chart: Hydrogen price against Natural gas price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line
Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2009), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic.Steam reforming of natural gas makes most hydrogen, so gas sets its cost. The merchant index shows no link with European gas, at 0.05 for monthly moves, because contracts and US gas prices matter more.
little or none co-movement month to month · 208 months Show chartsAmmonia plants are among the largest users of hydrogen, mostly made on site. The ammonia proxy shows no link: monthly moves correlate at minus 0.07 and yearly moves at minus 0.04.
little or none co-movement month to month · 208 months Show chartsRefineries use hydrogen to remove sulphur from fuels and upgrade heavy oil. The refining index shows almost no link, slightly negative: monthly moves correlate at minus 0.15, as most refinery hydrogen is not traded.
little or none co-movement month to month · 208 months Show chartsMethanol is made from hydrogen and carbon oxides, usually from gas, so it is a large captive user of hydrogen. The methanol proxy is a broad organics index; monthly moves correlate at minus 0.20 and yearly moves at minus 0.05.
weak co-movement month to month · 208 months Show chartsElectrolysers split water with electricity to make low-carbon hydrogen, which could replace gas-based supply as costs fall and carbon rules tighten. They have no public price series here, so the link is shown as text only.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.How to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.