Hydrogen peroxide: Cycles

How trade duties, not a world price, drive the cycle

Peroxide markets are regional, so cycles come from local capacity waves and trade measures rather than a world price. Prices rise when pulp, textile or disinfectant demand jumps or a large plant fails, and fall when new plants, often linked to HPPO or chlor-alkali, come on. In India, anti-dumping duties from 2017 lifted and stabilised local prices; their lapse in 2022 coincided with a swing to surplus. Public price series are scarce, so producer margins and duty decisions show the cycle best.

Margin per t (100%) = price - 0.06 x hydrogen cost - power and steam; no public level found.

Booms and busts

1. 2017-2022

   India imposed anti-dumping duties on peroxide from Bangladesh, Taiwan, South Korea, Indonesia, Pakistan and Thailand, after imports had taken about 20% of demand. Domestic prices rose and stabilised.

   not published

2. 2020-2021

   Pandemic demand for disinfection and aseptic packaging lifted peroxide sales worldwide (indicative).

   not published

3. 2022-2025

   Indian duties lapsed in June 2022 and new local capacity left India in surplus from Q4 2022; Pakistan extended its duties for five years from September 2025, citing price undercutting risk.

   not published

What drives the cycle

• Pulp and paper output. The largest user; follows packaging and tissue demand and pulp mill investment.
• HPPO and caprolactam construction. Each new HPPO plant adds a large captive peroxide plant, changing regional balances.
• Hydrogen and energy costs. Gas and power prices set marginal cost, especially in Europe.
• Trade measures. Anti-dumping duties in India (2017-2022) and Pakistan (renewed 2025) reshape regional flows.
• Textile output in South Asia. Cotton bleaching in India, Bangladesh and Pakistan is a large regional market.

Metrics to track