Monoethylene glycol: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
Monoethylene glycol is made from ethylene via ethylene oxide, and in China also from coal. Most goes into polyester and PET with PTA, so Asian polyester demand, Chinese coal-based supply and port stocks drive the price.
Proxy US PPI: other basic organic chemicals index (BLS base period) · monthly, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026There is no free public price for monoethylene glycol itself, so this tab uses the closest public series as a stand-in. Read the numbers as an indication, not as the price of this exact item.
What its price moves with
Selected linkMonoethylene glycol and Ethylene
Monthly changes 0.29 weak correlation 12-month changes 0.64 moderate correlation Last 5 years 0.42 monthly changes Lead or lag none No clear lead or lag Price function, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 Monoethylene glycol ≈ 164.2 × (Ethylene)0.07 R² 0.01 On this fit, a 10% higher ethylene price goes with a 0.7% higher monoethylene glycol price over the long run. Units: index (BLS base period) and index (BLS base period). The fit is loose, so treat the function as a rough guide.Chart: Monoethylene glycol and Ethylene prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, log scale
Both prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size.Chart: Monoethylene glycol price against Ethylene price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line
Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2006), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic.Ethylene, through ethylene oxide, is the main cost outside China, and the Middle East exports glycol from cheap ethane. The petrochemical proxy moves with the basic organics proxy at 0.29 monthly and 0.64 yearly.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsChina has built coal-to-glycol plants via syngas, which set a cost floor for Asian glycol when coal is cheap. The Australian coal price moves with the proxy at 0.17 monthly and 0.76 yearly.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsPolyester plants combine MEG with PTA, so both are bought together and share the same demand. The cyclic intermediates proxy moves with the basic organics proxy at 0.33 monthly and 0.80 yearly.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsPolyester fibre and filament take most MEG, so textile demand in China and India sets glycol run rates. The fibre index moves with the proxy at 0.17 monthly and 0.65 yearly, a loose monthly tie.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsPET bottle resin is the second big outlet, so drinks demand and recycling affect glycol. The broad resin index moves with the basic organics proxy at 0.32 monthly and 0.69 yearly.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsHow to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.