PET resin: Cycles

Thin margins that swing with PX, MEG and Chinese builds

PET resin prices move with PTA and MEG, which move with paraxylene, naphtha and crude. The resin margin over feedstock is thin and cyclical, set by Chinese capacity: big Chinese additions in 2023-2025 pushed operating rates to about 70% and margins to lows. Seasonal drinks demand in the northern summer and Indian summer adds a second-quarter peak. Shocks come from feedstock outages, freight and, in 2026, the Hormuz disruption to Gulf MEG and PX. In recycling, rPET flake prices follow virgin PET and regulation: EU mandates pulled Indian flake to Europe in FY25.

Covers conversion, catalyst and energy; producers need about $80-120/t (indicative). Using PTA $629/t CFR China (11 Mar 2025) and MEG about $510/t gives raw material near $710/t against PET FOB NE Asia $795/t (5 Mar 2025), a spread of roughly $80-90/t (derived, indicative).

Booms and busts

1. 2018

   A PX and MEG rally plus Chinese import curbs on scrap pushed PET resin and rPET prices up, then both fell sharply late in the year.

   CFR China MEG above $1,000/t in early 2018, then about $600/t by year-end (MEG tile, indicative); PET levels not retrieved

2. 2020

   Covid lockdowns hit on-the-go drinks demand and crude collapsed.

   CFR China MEG near $350/t in April 2020, a record low (MEG tile, indicative); PET levels not retrieved

3. 2024-2025

   China added about 2.4 Mt of PET in 2024 and more in 2025; producers cut rates to about 70%.

   PET FOB NE Asia $795/t and FOB SE Asia $870/t on 5 Mar 2025, down 11% and 9.4% year on year (Platts via S&P Global)

4. 2026

   Hormuz disruption tightened Gulf MEG and PX, raising polyester chain costs; European PET film prices jumped.

   12-micron PET film in Europe up about 40% and BOPET up about €0.55/kg on average in Q2 2026 (ESM Magazine); PTA CFR India $687/t (21 Jan 2026, PTA tile)

What drives the cycle

• PTA and MEG prices. Feedstock is 85-90% of cost; PX follows crude and naphtha, MEG follows ethylene and coal.
• Chinese capacity. China builds in waves and exports the surplus, setting Asian prices.
• Beverage seasonality. Bottle demand peaks in summer; Indian summer demand peaks March-June.
• Recycled-content mandates. EU, US state and Indian rules create demand for rPET and can make flake dearer than virgin resin.
• Freight and Hormuz. Gulf MEG and Asian PX flows; disruption in 2026 raised costs.

Metrics to track