Polymer additives: Cycles

How oversupply shows up in makers' results, not prices

Prices are not public, so cycles appear in producer results. Additive demand follows polymer production, which is less cyclical than polymer margins, but distributor destocking amplifies swings. The structural force is Chinese capacity in standard antioxidants, which has compressed margins for Songwon and others since 2023, while specialty blends hold up better (Clariant). The floor is the cash cost of the largest Chinese plants; the ceiling is customer qualification, which slows switching.

Songwon FY2025 gross margin 13.7%; Clariant A&A EBITDA margin 17.1% (2025).

Booms and busts

1. 2021-2022

   Post-Covid restocking and tight logistics lifted volumes and prices for stabilisers.

   not public in sources reviewed

2. 2024-2025

   Clariant raised margins despite falling sales; Lanxess Specialty Additives margins recovered slightly from a low base.

   Clariant A&A sales CHF 1,027 million to 987 million, EBITDA margin 15.8% to 17.1%; Lanxess Specialty Additives Q1 2025 margin 9.5% vs 8.5% (company releases)

3. 2025

   Songwon reported oversupply and Asian pricing pressure in polymer stabilisers.

   Songwon sales KRW 1,070 billion to 1,039 billion (-2.9%); Q4 2025 EBITDA margin 2.5% vs 8.9% a year earlier (Songwon)

What drives the cycle

• Polymer production. Loadings are fixed per tonne, so volume follows polyolefin and PVC output.
• Chinese capacity. Sets prices for commodity antioxidants.
• Regulation. Lead stabilisers, PFAS processing aids and UV-328 restrictions shift demand.
• Recycling. Recyclate needs re-stabilisation, a new demand pool.

Metrics to track