Refining catalysts: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
Refining catalysts include zeolite-based fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) catalysts and cobalt, nickel and molybdenum hydrotreating catalysts. Prices depend on metal and rare earth costs, refinery runs and tighter fuel sulphur rules, mostly through tenders and contracts.
No public price Refining catalysts has no public monthly price series: Sold through tenders and long contracts with refiners; no public index.What its price moves with
Lanthanum and cerium stabilise the zeolite in FCC catalysts. In 2011 a Chinese rare earth price spike sharply raised FCC catalyst prices, and refiners cut rare earth loadings in response.
No public price for rare earths, so the link is explained in words only.Synthetic zeolite Y is the active core of FCC catalysts and is made by catalyst producers themselves. Natural zeolite prices matter little, but the link shows the zeolite chemistry that makes cracking possible.
No public price for zeolites, so the link is explained in words only.Hydrotreating catalysts that remove sulphur from diesel and petrol are mostly molybdenum on alumina, promoted with cobalt or nickel. Molybdenum price swings affect fresh catalyst cost and the value recovered from spent catalyst.
No public price for molybdenum, so the link is explained in words only.Nickel-molybdenum catalysts are used for deep desulphurisation and hydrocracking. Nickel price changes alter catalyst cost, though refiners buy on long contracts and spent catalyst metals are recycled, which softens the effect.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.Synthetic zeolites and the silica binders in FCC catalysts are made from sodium silicate and sodium aluminate. These cheap chemicals are minor costs but are essential feedstocks for catalyst plants.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.Catalyst demand follows refinery throughput and complexity, such as Indian refineries adding hydrocrackers. Strong refining margins encourage catalyst upgrades and earlier change-outs, while weak margins make refiners stretch catalyst life and delay purchases, so catalyst sales follow the refining cycle.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.How to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.