Starch and cellulose derivatives: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
Starch and its sugars are milled mainly from maize, plus cassava, wheat and potato, so grain costs, milling energy and co-product values set prices. Demand comes from food, paper, adhesives and ethanol, often on annual contracts.
Proxy US PPI: manufactured starch by wet milling index (BLS base period =100) · monthly, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026There is no free public price for starch and cellulose derivatives itself, so this tab uses the closest public series as a stand-in. Read the numbers as an indication, not as the price of this exact item.
What its price moves with
Selected linkStarch and cellulose derivatives and Maize
Monthly changes 0.05 little or none correlation 12-month changes 0.33 weak correlation Last 5 years -0.08 monthly changes Lead or lag +1 mo Maize tends to lead by 1 month (r 0.24) Price function, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 Starch and cellulose derivatives ≈ 26.3 × (Maize)0.41 R² 0.25 On this fit, a 10% higher maize price goes with a 4.0% higher starch and cellulose derivatives price over the long run. Units: index (BLS base period =100) and $/mt. The fit is loose, so treat the function as a rough guide.Chart: Starch and cellulose derivatives and Maize prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, log scale
Both prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size.Chart: Starch and cellulose derivatives price against Maize price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line
Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2006), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic.US wet millers grind maize into starch, syrups and feed co-products, so corn is the main cost. Annual contracts slow the pass-through: monthly moves correlate at only 0.05, while yearly moves correlate at 0.33 in the proxy.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsWet and dry mills choose between making starch products and fuel ethanol from the same corn, and ethanol margins pull capacity one way or the other. The indices show it over a year, with 12-month moves correlating at 0.43.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsGlucose and high-fructose syrups made from starch compete with cane and beet sugar in drinks and food. The US sugar market is protected by quotas, so world sugar moves link weakly, with yearly moves correlating at 0.23.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsIn Thailand, Vietnam and India much starch is made from cassava rather than maize. Cassava starch competes in export markets with maize starch, so harvests in Asia affect world starch prices.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.Starch is used for corrugated board glue and paper coatings, and modified starches in many adhesives. The indices share the packaging cycle more than a cost link: monthly moves correlate at 0.09 and yearly moves at 0.39.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsHow to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.