Vinyl chloride monomer: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
Vinyl chloride monomer is made from ethylene and chlorine, or in China from coal-based acetylene, and almost all is turned into PVC. Its price follows ethylene, chlorine and power costs, and PVC demand from construction.
Proxy US PPI: other basic organic chemicals index (BLS base period) · monthly, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026There is no free public price for vinyl chloride monomer itself, so this tab uses the closest public series as a stand-in. Read the numbers as an indication, not as the price of this exact item.
What its price moves with
Selected linkVinyl chloride monomer and Ethylene
Monthly changes 0.29 weak correlation 12-month changes 0.64 moderate correlation Last 5 years 0.42 monthly changes Lead or lag none No clear lead or lag Price function, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 Vinyl chloride monomer ≈ 164.2 × (Ethylene)0.07 R² 0.01 On this fit, a 10% higher ethylene price goes with a 0.7% higher vinyl chloride monomer price over the long run. Units: index (BLS base period) and index (BLS base period). The fit is loose, so treat the function as a rough guide.Chart: Vinyl chloride monomer and Ethylene prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, log scale
Both prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size.Chart: Vinyl chloride monomer price against Ethylene price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line
Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2006), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic.Ethylene and chlorine combine into ethylene dichloride, which is cracked into VCM. The petrochemical proxy moves with the basic organics proxy at 0.29 monthly and 0.64 yearly. Integrated producers make ethylene, chlorine, VCM and PVC on one site.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsChlorine provides most of the weight of the VCM molecule and is made with caustic soda in electrolysis. The alkalies and chlorine index moves with the proxy at 0.20 monthly and 0.63 yearly, muted because that index also covers caustic soda and soda ash.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsNearly all VCM is polymerised into PVC, so pipe and building demand decides its value. The broad resin index moves with the basic organics proxy at 0.32 monthly and 0.69 yearly.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsChinese plants make VCM from acetylene derived from coal and calcium carbide, so Chinese coal and power costs set the price of much Asian supply. The Australian coal price moves with the proxy at 0.17 monthly and 0.76 yearly.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsSalt is the source of the chlorine, but it is cheap, plentiful and sold on long contracts. The salt index barely moves with the proxy, -0.01 monthly, so salt is a negligible price driver.
little or none co-movement month to month · 162 months Show chartsChlor-alkali electrolysis uses a lot of electricity, so power prices feed into chlorine and VCM. The US industrial power index moves with the proxy at only 0.02 monthly and 0.43 yearly, because power is bought on contracts.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsHow to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.