Aluminium: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
Aluminium is traded on the LME and in Shanghai. Smelting is very power-hungry, so electricity and coal prices set much of the cost, while transport, packaging, construction and power lines drive demand. China's cap on smelting capacity shapes supply.
Market price World Bank Pink Sheet: Aluminum $/mt · monthly, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026What its price moves with
Selected linkAluminium and Copper
Monthly changes 0.67 moderate correlation 12-month changes 0.87 strong correlation Last 5 years 0.59 monthly changes Lead or lag none No clear lead or lag Price function, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 Aluminium ≈ 6.56 × (Copper)0.65 R² 0.66 On this fit, a 10% higher copper price goes with a 6.4% higher aluminium price over the long run. Units: $/mt and $/mt.Chart: Aluminium and Copper prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, log scale
Both prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size.Chart: Aluminium price against Copper price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line
Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2006), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic.Aluminium wins market share from copper in cables, radiators and air-conditioners when copper is dear, and both follow industrial demand. Yearly changes correlate at 0.87 and monthly ones at 0.67, making copper aluminium's closest partner in the data.
moderate co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsChinese smelters run largely on captive coal-fired power, so coal prices drive the marginal cost of much of the world's aluminium. Monthly moves correlate at 0.38 and yearly moves at 0.59; Chinese coal is mostly domestic, so the Australian price is an imperfect guide.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsElectricity is the largest cost in smelting, which is why smelters cluster near cheap hydro, coal or gas power. The proxy, a US industrial power index, barely moves with world aluminium (-0.11 monthly), since most smelters buy power on long fixed contracts outside the US.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsBauxite is refined into alumina with hot caustic soda in the Bayer process, so caustic prices affect alumina costs. The chemical is a minor cost next to power, and the proxy is a broad US alkalis index, so correlation is slightly negative (-0.14 monthly).
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsSmelter anodes are made from calcined petroleum coke and pitch, by-products of oil refining, so refinery output affects anode costs. Against the refinery index monthly moves correlate at 0.44 and yearly at 0.72, largely reflecting the shared energy cycle.
moderate co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsHow to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.