Aluminium: Criticality

Why the EU calls it critical and strategic

What this tab covers How exposed economies are to a supply disruption: the EU, US and India listings, the concentration score, and a quantified exposure for the US, EU, India, China, Japan, Latin America, the Middle East and Australia. Where the EU scored it, a chart of supply risk against economic importance, with import reliance, recycling input and substitutes.

Exposure by region

Region	Exposure	Share of world output	Share of world imports	Share of world exports	Net trade (US$)	On own critical list	Position
US	High	0.9%	13.2%	2.9%	−$9.52 bn	Yes	Produced only 660 kt of primary metal in 2025 from 1.31 Mt of capacity and relied on imports for 60% of use, mainly from Canada (56% of imports); tariffs rose to 50% in June 2025, and aluminium is on the US critical minerals list (USGS 2026).
EU	High	1.6%	31.2%	18.9%	−$15.5 bn	Yes	Aluminium/bauxite is critical and strategic on the EU CRM list, with import reliance of 89% for bauxite and 58% for aluminium and a 32% end-of-life recycling input rate (EU CRM 2023); a 228 ktpa smelter in San Ciprian, Spain restarted in 2025.
India	Low	5.7%	1.7%	8.1%	+$3.36 bn	No	Second-largest producer with about 4.2 Mt of metal, 8.2 Mt of alumina and 25 Mt of bauxite in 2025 (USGS), a net exporter (8.5% of world unwrought exports by value in 2024, UN Comtrade); aluminium is not on India's 2023 critical minerals list.
China	Medium	60.0%	21.8%	1.6%	−$17.6 bn	Yes	Made about 45 Mt of the world's 74 Mt of primary aluminium and 93 Mt of the 150 Mt of alumina in 2025 (USGS), and took 87% of world bauxite imports by value in 2024 (UN Comtrade).
Japan	High	0.0%	6.2%	0.0%	−$5.27 bn	No	Has no primary smelters in the USGS country table and imports metal, taking 7.2% of world unwrought aluminium imports by value in 2024 (UN Comtrade).
Latin America	High	2.1%	4.2%	1.9%	−$2.47 bn	no list	Brazil produced about 33 Mt of bauxite, 11 Mt of alumina and 1.2 Mt of metal in 2025 and Jamaica 6.2 Mt of bauxite (USGS); Brazil supplied 71% of US alumina imports in 2021-24.
Middle East	Low	9.4%	0.6%	11.0%	+$5.95 bn	no list	Gas-powered smelters in the UAE (2.7 Mt) and Bahrain (1.6 Mt) plus Saudi alumina (1.9 Mt) and bauxite (5.7 Mt) make the Gulf a major exporter (USGS 2025e); Bahrain held 6.1% of world unwrought exports by value in 2024 (UN Comtrade).
Australia	Low	2.1%	0.0%	9.1%	+$5.35 bn	Yes	Mined about 97 Mt of bauxite, refined 17 Mt of alumina and smelted 1.5 Mt of metal in 2025 (USGS), and supplied 67% of world bauxite exports by value in 2024 (UN Comtrade).

Exposure rating: High when the region is a net importer whose import share is at least three times its share of world output (or, for farm goods, it produces under 70% of what it consumes); Medium for other net importers (or 70-95% self-sufficiency), raised to High when world supply is highly concentrated in another country; Low for net exporters or self-sufficient regions. Net importer status uses tonnage where reported, otherwise value. Output: World Mining Data, 2024. Trade: UN Comtrade 2024 (EU = sum of member states, including intra-EU trade). Critical lists: US 2025, EU 2024/1252, India 2023, China 2016 strategic minerals, Japan METI, Australia 2024.

The EU lists aluminium and bauxite as critical and strategic, with supply risk 1.2 and economic importance 5.8. EU import reliance is 89% for bauxite and 58% for the metal. The US 2025 list includes aluminium; India's 2023 list does not. The risk lies less in geology than in concentration: one country smelts 60% of the metal and another mines a third of the bauxite. Substitutes exist in most uses: composites in aircraft, steel and plastics in packaging and cars, and copper in electrical work.

EU 2023 Critical also a strategic raw material US 2025 list Yes India 2023 list No Production HHI 3,719 highly concentrated

EU 2023 assessment

Chart: EU 2023 criticality: supply risk against economic importance

Each dot is a material assessed by the EU in 2023. The shaded corner is the critical zone (supply risk ≥ 1.0, economic importance ≥ 2.8). Aluminium: supply risk 1.2, economic importance 5.8. EU import reliance, extraction 89% EU import reliance, processing 58% EU recycling input rate 32% US net import reliance, 2025 60% share of apparent consumption

Substitutes

Composites in aircraft; glass, paper, plastics and steel in packaging; composites, magnesium, steel and titanium in vehicles; copper in electrical uses