Antimony: Cycles

How export curbs quadrupled a sleepy price

For years antimony traded quietly at about $5 to $6/lb. The US price averaged $5.49 in 2023, then $10.24 in 2024 and $25 in 2025. China restricted exports in August 2024 and banned shipments to the United States that December. Monthly prices nearly doubled from $9.80 to $18.10/lb between August and December 2024, and reached $27.50 in June 2025. They eased to $20.30 by November. Supply responds slowly. New mines in Idaho and Montana only broke ground or started mining in late 2025.

US price, Antimony metal 99.65%, CIF (Argus)

Super-cycles in antimony

Antimony is a small market whose price has been set by Chinese supply policy for decades. Wartime shortages made it a strategic metal; since then Chinese mine closures and stockpiling caused periodic spikes, while weak demand let prices sink below $6,000/t in 2020. The 2024 export controls and US ban triggered the biggest spike on record, with Rotterdam prices near $60,000/t in mid-2025, about ten times the 2020 level. Prices have eased since, but remain far above pre-2024 levels while new Western supply is years away.

1. 1937-1945

   Japan's invasion of China cut off the main supply. The US passed the 1939 Strategic and Critical Materials Stock Piling Act, listed antimony and subsidised the Yellow Pine mine at Stibnite in Idaho, which produced antimony and tungsten for the war (Scheyder 2024).

   No price figures in the sources used.

2. 2016-2017

   Chinese environmental inspections and bank loan recalls shut smelters in Hunan and Guangxi and left ore short; Minmetals bought stocks to support prices.

   Rotterdam Standard Grade II rose to $8,100-8,450/t in August 2017 and Chinese metal to 55,000-56,000 yuan/t (Fastmarkets).

3. 2020

   Pandemic demand collapse in plastics and construction pushed prices to multi-year lows.

   Average about $5,800/t before and during the pandemic (Skillings 2026).

4. 2024-2026

   China imposed export controls in August 2024 and banned exports to the US in December 2024, while defence demand rose. China later suspended the civilian ban until November 2026, but military-grade material stays controlled.

   US price (Argus, 99.65% CIF) averaged $5.49/lb in 2023, $10.24/lb in 2024 and $25/lb in 2025; monthly averages rose from $9.80/lb (Aug 2024) to $27.50/lb (June 2025), then fell to $20.30/lb (Nov 2025) (USGS); Rotterdam peaked at $59,750/t in July 2025 and was about $39,500/t in mid-2026 (Skillings).

What drives the cycle

• Chinese export policy. China is the largest miner and smelter; its licences and bans since 2024 split the market between Chinese and Western prices.
• Mine depletion and closures in China. Environmental enforcement and exhausted high-grade ores have repeatedly cut Chinese output (Fastmarkets 2017).
• Defence demand and stockpiling. Ammunition, primers and infrared devices need antimony; the US listed 700 t for stockpile acquisition in FY2025 (USGS).
• Flame-retardant and solar-glass demand. Electronics, construction and solar panels drive the largest uses.
• Gold prices. High gold prices make gold-antimony projects such as Stibnite and Costerfield viable, adding by-product antimony.

Metrics to track