Arsenic: Cycles
Why arsenic supply ignores its own price
What this tab covers Price history and what drives booms and busts, including this commodity's super-cycles, the drivers behind them and the metrics to track. It charts monthly prices (World Bank) with a switch to inflation-adjusted annual prices; where there is no World Bank series it uses USGS US prices.The Argus US warehouse price for 99% metal rose from $1.11/lb in 2021 to $2.05 in 2023. It eased to $1.97 in 2024 and $1.85 in 2025. Supply follows copper and gold smelting, so it does not respond to price. Wood-preservative demand tracks construction and utility-pole replacement. High-purity metal for GaAs follows electronics and defence cycles, but volumes are small. Tilton and Guzmán put world sales of arsenic metal at about $30 million in 2014 (pdf p. 24).
US price, US warehouse, 99% arsenic metal (Argus)
2021 1.11 2022 1.82 2023 2.05 2024 1.97 2025 1.85 dollars per pound. USGS MCS 2026; 2025 is an estimate.Super-cycles in arsenic
Arsenic has no super-cycle of its own. Supply is set by copper, gold and lead smelting, and demand has shrunk for decades as arsenical pesticides and residential CCA timber were restricted. Prices are low in absolute terms (about $1-2/lb for metal) and move in short bursts when Chinese supply or US wood-treatment demand shifts. The metal price nearly doubled between 2021 and 2023, then eased. Because the market is small (world trade in arsenic metal of about $15 million in 2023, UN Comtrade), a single smelter decision can move prices.
- 2008-2012
After the financial crisis, weak demand and steady by-product supply pushed Chinese arsenic metal down, while Moroccan trioxide stayed flat. Arsenic did not join the wider metals boom.
Chinese metal value fell from 125 US cents/lb (2008) to 72 cents/lb (2010) and 77 cents/lb (2012e); Moroccan trioxide stayed at 19-22 cents/lb (USGS MCS 2013)
- 2017-2020
A quiet market with ample Chinese and Peruvian supply. Prices drifted lower as pandemic disruption hit demand in 2020.
Rotterdam 99% metal averaged $1.08/lb (2017) and $0.94/lb (2020) (USGS Minerals Yearbook 2021)
- 2021-2025
US imports of arsenic compounds jumped to restock wood-treatment chemicals, and Chinese supply tightened. Prices rose to a high in 2023 and then eased as imports normalised.
US warehouse metal rose from $1.11/lb (2021) to $2.05/lb (2023), then $1.85/lb (2025e); US arsenic imports went from 5,560 t (2021) to 10,100 t (2022) (USGS MCS 2026)
What drives the cycle
- Copper and gold smelting volumes and ore arsenic content. More arsenic-bearing concentrate is being mined as clean ore bodies deplete. That raises potential supply and the cost of disposal, not the price.
- Regulation of wood preservatives and pesticides. CCA and arsenical pesticide rules in the US, EU and China set the size of the biggest demand segment.
- Chinese industrial and environmental policy. China supplies 45% of US arsenic imports in all forms and most high-purity metal; plant closures or export controls move prices quickly.
- Compound-semiconductor demand. GaAs and InGaAs chips for RF, defence and infrared sensing need small tonnages of 6N-7N metal with few qualified suppliers.
Metrics to track
| Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenic metal price, 99% (US warehouse and Rotterdam) | The only regularly quoted price | Argus Non-Ferrous Markets; summarised yearly in USGS MCS |
| US arsenic imports by form and origin | Shows wood-treatment restocking and China dependence | US Census Bureau trade data; USGS MCS |
| Arsenic content in copper concentrates and smelter penalty levels | Signals how much arsenic smelters must handle | Annual TC/RC and penalty negotiations reported by Fastmarkets and Reuters |
| China arsenic export volumes | Largest exporter of metal and trioxide | China General Administration of Customs |
| GaAs wafer shipments | Demand signal for high-purity arsenic | Company reports of AXT, Sumitomo Electric, Freiberger |