Barley: Criticality

When feeding camels became a matter of state

What this tab covers How exposed economies are to a supply disruption: the EU, US and India listings, the concentration score, and a quantified exposure for the US, EU, India, China, Japan, Latin America, the Middle East and Australia. Where the EU scored it, a chart of supply risk against economic importance, with import reliance, recycling input and substitutes.

Exposure by region

Region	Exposure	Share of world output	Share of world imports	Share of world exports	Net trade (US$)	Self-sufficiency	On own critical list	Position
US	Medium	2.2%	0.7%	0.2%	−$44.3 m	86%	No	Grew 3.1 Mt in 2025/26, mostly malting barley, and is roughly balanced with small imports (USDA).
EU	Low	34.5%	26.5%	49.3%	+$2.41 bn	113%	No	Largest producer at 56.4 Mt and an exporter of 9.4 Mt in 2025/26; France is the second-largest exporter by value (USDA; Comtrade 2023).
India	Medium	1.2%	0.4%	0.0%	−$35.9 m	92%	No	Grows about 1.9 Mt, imports little (0.11 Mt in 2025/26) and uses most of it for malt and food; new malting capacity in Rajasthan will raise demand (USDA; inside.beer).
China	High	0.7%	39.9%	0.0%	−$3.79 bn	15%	No	Grows only 2.3 Mt but imported 14.0 Mt in 2025/26, the world's largest buyer at 39.9% of import value in 2024 (USDA; Comtrade).
Japan	High	0.1%	3.6%	0.0%	−$343.6 m	17%	No	Imports about 1.15 Mt a year (2025/26) against 0.23 Mt of domestic output (USDA).
Latin America	Low	5.4%	4.9%	9.7%	+$501.6 m	130%	no list	Argentina grew 5.6 Mt and exported 3.7 Mt in 2025/26, much of it malting barley for Brazil and China (USDA).
Middle East	High	4.1%	14.7%	0.2%	−$1.38 bn	43%	no list	Saudi Arabia (4.9 Mt) and Iran (3.0 Mt) are major feed-barley importers (USDA 2025/26).
Australia	Low	9.3%	0.0%	22.6%	+$2.26 bn	276%	No	Grew 16.6 Mt and exported 11.5 Mt in 2025/26, the top exporter by value (22.6% in 2023) (USDA; Comtrade).

Exposure rating: High when the region is a net importer whose import share is at least three times its share of world output (or, for farm goods, it produces under 70% of what it consumes); Medium for other net importers (or 70-95% self-sufficiency), raised to High when world supply is highly concentrated in another country; Low for net exporters or self-sufficient regions. Net importer status uses tonnage where reported, otherwise value. Output: FAOSTAT, 2024. Trade: UN Comtrade 2023 (EU = sum of member states, including intra-EU trade). Self-sufficiency: USDA PSD 2026/27. Critical lists: US 2025, EU 2024/1252, India 2023, China 2016 strategic minerals, Japan METI, Australia 2024.

Barley is not on any critical minerals list. Its importance is food and feed security. In the 2008 food crisis, Saudi rulers worried about feeding their camels (Blas & Farchy, pdf p. 232). Russia has used export duties and quotas on grains, including barley. Climate risk is real: droughts in Australia and the Black Sea can cut crops sharply. Barley's tolerance of heat, drought and salinity also makes it a fallback crop as climate warms. Substitution with wheat and maize limits price spikes.

EU 2023 Not assessed US 2025 list No India 2023 list No Production HHI 520 unconcentrated