Barley: Cycles

Tracking a price after the monthly quote stopped

The World Bank's monthly barley quote stopped in August 2020, but annual real prices tell the story. In 2010 dollars barley peaked at $218.0/t in 2012 and fell to about $100 in 2017 and again in 2020. It rose to $182.9 in 2023 and eased to $147.0 in 2025. Barley follows the wider grain cycle, set by maize and wheat, energy costs and weather. Booms in 2011-12 and 2022-23 matched drought and the Ukraine war. Supply responds within a season, because farmers can switch acreage between cereals.

The World Bank stopped publishing this monthly series in 2020-08. Changes below are measured from that month.

Barley price

Chart: Barley monthly price

Chart: Barley annual real price

Super-cycles in barley

Barley rides the wider grain cycle set by maize and wheat, energy and fertiliser costs and weather. The World Bank price rose from about $20/t in the 1960s to a peak of $265.7/t in August 2012, with booms in 1973-74, 1995-96, 2007-08, 2010-12 and 2021-23. Each was followed by a fall as farmers expanded area within a season. In real terms prices have no lasting upward trend: in 2010 dollars barley averaged $218/t in 2012 and $147/t in 2025. Trade policy matters too, as China's 2020-23 duties on Australian barley showed.

1. 1972-1975

   Soviet grain purchases, poor harvests and the oil shock lifted all grain prices.

   World Bank barley rose from $40.6/t (Mar 1973) to $71.0/t (Oct 1974), then eased to $56.5/t (Dec 1975)

2. 1995-1997

   Low world grain stocks and strong feed demand pushed prices up, then large crops reversed the move.

   From $85.5/t (Jan 1995) to $138.1/t (Jun 1996); annual average fell to $85.1/t by 1998 (World Bank)

3. 2006-2009

   Biofuel demand for maize, Australian drought and the commodity boom, then the financial crisis.

   From $100.4/t (2006 low) to $248.1/t (Jul 2008), then $115.2/t (Dec 2008) (World Bank)

4. 2010-2016

   Russian drought (2010) and US drought (2012) set the all-time high; record crops then sent prices down for four years.

   From $137.4/t (2010 low) to $265.7/t (Aug 2012); annual average $97.7/t in 2017 (World Bank) (series switched from Canadian to US Minneapolis feed barley in May 2012)

5. 2020-2025

   China put 80.5% duties on Australian barley in May 2020 and switched to French, Canadian and Argentine supply until the duties were lifted in August 2023; the Ukraine war lifted all grains in 2022.

   World Bank annual average rose from $97.6/t (2020) to $208.7/t (2023), then $183.9/t (2024) and $170.6/t (2025); the monthly series stopped in Aug 2020 at $80.4/t

What drives the cycle

• Maize and wheat prices. Feed barley substitutes for both, so it tracks their cycle closely.
• Weather in Australia, the Black Sea and Europe. These regions supply most exports; Australian drought years cut exports sharply.
• Chinese and Saudi import demand. China imported 14.0 Mt and Saudi Arabia 4.9 Mt in 2025/26 (USDA); their pig and livestock cycles and trade policy move the market.
• Beer and whisky demand. Sets the malting premium over feed; maltsters cut capacity in 2025 as beer volumes fell.
• Fertiliser and fuel costs. Drive planting decisions and the cost floor.

Metrics to track