Bismuth: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
Bismuth is mostly a by-product of lead, tungsten and copper refining, largely in China, so supply follows those metals. It is used in medicines, cosmetics, lead-free solders, alloys and chemicals, and prices depend heavily on Chinese output and export policy.
No public price Bismuth has no public monthly price series: Small market priced in private assessments; no public series.What its price moves with
Lead refineries recover bismuth as a by-product, so lead output sets much of bismuth supply. Bismuth also replaces lead in free-machining steels, plumbing brass and shot because it is non-toxic.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.Chinese tungsten mines yield bismuth as a by-product, so Chinese tungsten quotas and mine closures affect bismuth supply too. Bismuth thus shares China's mining and export policy risks with tungsten.
No public price for tungsten, so the link is explained in words only.Tin-bismuth alloys are low-temperature lead-free solders used in electronics, so solder demand links the two. Bismuth helps protect heat-sensitive components during assembly, a use that grows with advanced chip packaging.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.Bismuth compounds such as bismuth subsalicylate treat stomach upsets and ulcers, so pharmaceutical makers are steady buyers. This use is price-insensitive, unlike metallurgical demand, which swings with the steel and electronics cycles.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.Copper smelters and refineries also capture bismuth from concentrates, especially in China, Peru and Japan, adding supply linked to copper output rather than bismuth demand. Bismuth is an unwanted impurity for copper smelters.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.How to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.