Bismuth: Cycles

From about $4 to $34 a pound in one policy shock

Bismuth was cheap and stable for years, with the Rotterdam price at $3.74 to $4.08/lb over 2021–23. Then policy struck. China imposed export controls in February 2025, responding to new US tariffs, and the monthly average hit $34.22/lb in March. It eased to $17.50 by October. The 2025 average of about $20/lb was almost four times 2024's and the highest on record. Supply cannot react much, because output follows lead and tungsten processing. Producers ran a world bismuth cartel in the late 19th century (Tilton & Guzmán, pdf p. 193).

US price, Bismuth 99.99%, in warehouse Rotterdam (Fastmarkets)

Super-cycles in bismuth

Bismuth is a small by-product market with no long public price series in the sources used, and its price swings on Chinese supply, speculation and policy. A cartel controlled it in the late 19th century. In 2014, Chinese investment platforms hoarded more than a year of world output, then collapsed, and prices stayed low for nearly a decade. China's February 2025 export controls pushed prices outside China to an all-time high of over $30/lb, and the 2025 average of $20/lb was about four times 2024. These are policy and speculation spikes, not demand super-cycles.

1. 2014-2015

   Chinese producers sold bismuth to investors on the Fanya Metal Exchange, which absorbed supply and supported prices. When silver fell, smaller producers sold bismuth to meet margin calls, and Fanya itself collapsed in 2015.

   Rotterdam fell from $12.10-12.50/lb to $11.90-12.30/lb in early November 2014 while Fanya stocks reached 16,636 t, more than a year of primary output (Fastmarkets); Chinese metal was 105,000-108,000 yuan/t on 29 January 2015 (Argus).

2. 2016-2024

   Prices stayed low for years after the Fanya collapse while demand grew slowly.

   USGS annual averages were $3.74/lb (2021), $3.90 (2022), $4.08 (2023) and $5.40/lb (2024).

3. 2025

   China added bismuth to export licensing on 4 February 2025, after new US tariffs, while feedstock shortages cut Chinese output and investors bought on the Zhonglianjin platform. Buyers switched to bismuth trioxide, which was excluded.

   Europe rose from $5.80-6.20/lb (28 January) to an all-time high of $32-36/lb (6 March) (Argus); monthly averages $5.96/lb (Jan), $34.22/lb (Mar), $17.50/lb (Oct); annual $20/lb, a record (USGS).

What drives the cycle

• Chinese export policy. China refines about 88% of world bismuth, so licensing since February 2025 set prices outside China.
• Lead, tungsten and zinc output. Bismuth supply depends on host-metal production and on crude bismuth and concentrate feed, as the February 2025 shortage showed.
• Speculation and stockpiles. Fanya held 16,636 t in 2014, more than a year of output, and its collapse depressed prices for years; exchange buying in 2025 amplified the spike.
• Lead-replacement regulation. Rules such as the 2014 US lead-free plumbing standard (0.25% lead) raise demand for bismuth brass and solders.
• Pharmaceutical and cosmetic demand. The largest use is steady and price-insensitive, so price spikes are absorbed rather than cutting demand quickly.

Metrics to track