Cobalt: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
Most cobalt is a by-product of copper mining in Congo and of nickel mining in Indonesia and elsewhere, so supply often ignores cobalt prices. Demand comes from batteries, superalloys and carbide tools; Congo's export quotas now shape prices.
No public price Cobalt has no public monthly price series: Priced in private assessments and thin exchange trading; no free series.What its price moves with
Congo's copper-cobalt mines produce most of the world's cobalt, and they expand when copper is profitable, flooding cobalt supply. That is why cobalt fell even as battery demand grew, until Congo restricted exports.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.Nickel laterite and sulphide mines, especially new acid leach plants in Indonesia, produce cobalt as a by-product, adding supply regardless of cobalt prices. Indonesia has become the second largest source after Congo.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.NMC and NCA cathodes for longer-range electric cars use cobalt to stabilise their structure, so their output drives demand. Battery makers have cut cobalt content steadily to lower cost and supply risk.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.LFP batteries contain no cobalt, and their rise in electric cars and storage has cut cobalt use per kilowatt-hour across the battery market. Cheap LFP caps how far cobalt can rise without losing demand.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.Cobalt sulphate is converted into NMC and lithium cobalt oxide cathode materials, the latter used in phones and laptops. Cathode prices pass cobalt costs through by formula, so cathode makers feel cobalt swings directly.
No public price for battery cathode materials, so the link is explained in words only.Cemented carbide tools bind tungsten carbide with cobalt, a steady use outside batteries, and superalloys for jet engines are another. These uses are less price-sensitive than batteries and keep a floor under demand.
No public price for tungsten, so the link is explained in words only.How to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.