Cobalt: Cycles

The EV boom, then a 59% price crash

Cobalt has no World Bank price series. USGS reports that LME cash cobalt averaged $28.83 a pound in 2022, during the electric-vehicle boom. It fell 59% to $11.84 in 2024, as Congolese and Indonesian supply surged and battery makers cut cobalt content. Congo responded with a temporary export ban in February 2025. The price recovered to about $15, and the US spot cathode price to about $21. By-product supply does not react to cobalt prices, so gluts and shortages last. Producer policy is now a major price driver.

US price, US spot cathode (Platts)

Super-cycles in cobalt

Cobalt has a history of sharp, policy-driven spikes rather than smooth super-cycles. Because it is a by-product of copper and nickel, supply cannot follow price, and because the DRC dominates, events in one country move the world price. Prices spiked when Zaire's Shaba province was invaded in the late 1970s, again in 2008, in 2017-2018 when EV hype met hoarding, and in 2021-2022. Each spike was followed by a glut as new copper and nickel projects brought cobalt with them. In 2025 the DRC itself became the price-setter, banning exports and then imposing quotas, which quadrupled hydroxide prices.

1. 1977-1979

   Separatists invaded Zaire's Shaba (Katanga) province in 1977 and 1978, disrupting the source of most Western cobalt; buyers panicked and the US stockpile became a policy issue. Radetzki and Wårell count cobalt in 1978 as one of only four true global supply crises since 1945 (A Handbook of Primary Commodities). No verified price series for these years was found.

2. 2007-2009

   Chinese demand and the commodity boom met tight supply; the global financial crisis then crushed superalloy and battery demand. Monthly price levels for this episode could not be checked against a primary series, so none are given.

3. 2016-2019

   EV forecasts and investment-fund stockpiling drove a rally; new DRC output (Glencore's KCC and Mutanda) then flooded the market.

   LME three-month cobalt peaked above $95,000/t in 2017-2018 and fell to $26,000/t in 2019 (Andy Home, Reuters column via Mining.com, 22 Aug 2024).

4. 2021-2024

   Pandemic logistics and EV demand lifted prices, then CMOC's Kisanfu and Tenke expansions and Indonesian HPAL supply created large surpluses, while LFP cut cobalt intensity.

   LME three-month reached $82,000/t in March 2022 (Andy Home, Reuters, Aug 2024); LME cash averaged $28.83/lb in 2022 and $11.84/lb in 2024 (USGS MCS 2026).

5. 2025-2026

   The DRC banned exports in February 2025, then set quotas of 96,600 t a year for 2026-27; exports resumed only at the end of Q1 2026. By October 2026, large Chinese inventories and weak LCO demand were pushing prices down again.

   In 2025 metal rose from $10.75 to $24.75/lb (+130%) and hydroxide from $5.90 to $25.25/lb (+328%) (Cobalt Institute); metal $26.23/lb on 24 June 2026; European metal traded at $17.5-19.5/lb during LME Week, October 2026 (Benchmark).

What drives the cycle

• DRC policy. With about 73% of mine output, DRC export bans, quotas, royalties and mining code changes now set the market more than any other factor.
• Copper and nickel investment. New copper mines in the DRC and nickel HPAL plants in Indonesia bring cobalt regardless of its price.
• Battery chemistry. The shift to LFP and low-cobalt NMC cuts cobalt per kWh, while EV and phone growth adds volume.
• Chinese refining and stocking. China refines about 79% of cobalt; its inventories of sulphate and precursors buffer or amplify shocks.
• Aerospace and defence demand. Superalloys and magnets are a stable, price-insensitive base that grows with aircraft build rates and defence spending.
• Recycling. Rising battery scrap will add supply outside the DRC and China over time.

Metrics to track