Milk & dairy: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
Milk prices depend on feed costs, herd sizes, weather and pasture, and demand for cheese, butter and powder. The series is a US raw milk index. In India, the largest producer, cooperatives and state rules set much of the milk price.
Price index US producer price index: raw milk index, BLS base period · monthly, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026What its price moves with
Selected linkMilk & dairy and Maize
Monthly changes 0.12 little or none correlation 12-month changes 0.40 moderate correlation Last 5 years 0.17 monthly changes Lead or lag none No clear lead or lag Price function, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 Milk & dairy ≈ 17.9 × (Maize)0.39 R² 0.31 On this fit, a 10% higher maize price goes with a 3.8% higher milk & dairy price over the long run. Units: index, BLS base period and $/mt.Chart: Milk & dairy and Maize prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, log scale
Both prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size.Chart: Milk & dairy price against Maize price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line
Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2006), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic.Maize silage and grain are the main feeds for US dairy cows, so feed prices affect milk supply. The index shows this over a year: monthly moves correlate at 0.12 and yearly moves at 0.40.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsSoybean meal is the protein feed for dairy cows. Monthly moves correlate at 0.04 and yearly moves at 0.41, as feed cost changes take months to change herd size and milk output.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsDairy farms sell old cows and male calves for beef, so beef prices affect dairy income and when cows are culled. Monthly moves correlate at 0.07 and yearly moves at 0.42.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsDiesel for feed production and power for milking and cooling are dairy costs. The diesel proxy correlates with milk at 0.36 for monthly moves and 0.55 for yearly moves, the strongest link here and partly a shared US inflation cycle.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsHow to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.