Milk & dairy: Criticality

How a melamine scandal rewired the infant formula trade

What this tab covers How exposed economies are to a supply disruption: the EU, US and India listings, the concentration score, and a quantified exposure for the US, EU, India, China, Japan, Latin America, the Middle East and Australia. Where the EU scored it, a chart of supply risk against economic importance, with import reliance, recycling input and substitutes.

Exposure by region

Region	Exposure	Share of world output	Share of world imports	Share of world exports	Net trade (US$)	Self-sufficiency	On own critical list	Position
US	Low	12.9%	4.5%	6.4%	+$1.85 bn	100%	No	Second-largest cow milk producer (12.9% in 2024, FAOSTAT) and a growing exporter, with 10.7% of milk powder export value in 2024 and cheese exports forecast at 0.75 Mt in 2026 (UN Comtrade; USDA PSD).
EU	Low	18.5%	52.4%	65.9%	+$15.0 bn	100%	No	Produces 154.2 Mt of cow milk (2026, USDA PSD) and is the largest cheese exporter, with Germany (14.9%), Italy (13.3%) and the Netherlands (13.2%) leading world cheese export value in 2024 (UN Comtrade).
India	Low	16.9%	0.0%	0.4%	+$317.8 m	100%	No	Largest milk producer (25.2% of world milk from all species in 2024, FAOSTAT) and nearly self-contained, with negligible imports and small butter and SMP exports (USDA PSD).
China	Low	5.1%	6.2%	0.1%	−$4.11 bn	99%	No	Produces 41.8 Mt of cow milk (2026, USDA PSD) and is the largest importer of milk powder (13.6% of world import value in 2024, UN Comtrade).
Japan	Low	0.9%	2.2%	0.0%	−$1.50 bn	100%	No	Net importer of cheese, with imports forecast at 0.25 Mt in 2026, and holder of 75,000 t of SMP stocks (USDA PSD).
Latin America	Low	10.9%	6.8%	3.0%	−$2.27 bn	100%	no list	Mexico is the largest SMP importer (0.39 Mt in 2026), Brazil produces 4.6% of world cow milk, and Argentina exports WMP (0.17 Mt) (USDA PSD; FAOSTAT).
Middle East	High	1.9%	6.2%	2.2%	−$2.47 bn	–	no list	Net importer: Saudi Arabia took 5.2% of world milk powder imports by value in 2024, and nearby Algeria 8.1% (UN Comtrade).
Australia	Low	1.1%	1.6%	2.5%	+$821.3 m	102%	No	Mid-sized exporter, with SMP exports forecast at 0.15 Mt in 2026 (USDA PSD).

Exposure rating: High when the region is a net importer whose import share is at least three times its share of world output (or, for farm goods, it produces under 70% of what it consumes); Medium for other net importers (or 70-95% self-sufficiency), raised to High when world supply is highly concentrated in another country; Low for net exporters or self-sufficient regions. Net importer status uses tonnage where reported, otherwise value. Output: FAOSTAT, 2024. Trade: UN Comtrade 2024 (EU = sum of member states, including intra-EU trade). Self-sufficiency: USDA PSD 2026. Critical lists: US 2025, EU 2024/1252, India 2023, China 2016 strategic minerals, Japan METI, Australia 2024.

Dairy is not on any critical raw materials list, but it matters for nutrition, especially infant formula. China's 2008 melamine scandal pushed buyers toward imported formula and powder, tying food safety to trade. Import-dependent regions rely on a few exporters, chiefly New Zealand and the EU, so drought in either moves world prices. Methane and nitrogen pollution make dairy a target of climate and water policy, as Dutch and New Zealand debates show. In India, milk is a smallholder livelihood shielded from imports.

EU 2023 Not assessed US 2025 list No India 2023 list No Production HHI 606 unconcentrated