Gold: Criticality

A huge stock above ground keeps gold off critical lists

What this tab covers How exposed economies are to a supply disruption: the EU, US and India listings, the concentration score, and a quantified exposure for the US, EU, India, China, Japan, Latin America, the Middle East and Australia. Where the EU scored it, a chart of supply risk against economic importance, with import reliance, recycling input and substitutes.

Exposure by region

Region	Exposure	Share of world output	Share of world imports	Share of world exports	Net trade (US$)	On own critical list	Position
US	Low	4.9%	2.9%	5.9%	+$13.7 bn	No	Mines produced about 160 t in 2025 and refiners recycled about 90 t; the US was a net exporter in 2021-24, but 2025 imports (320 t) exceeded exports (260 t), and USGS gives no net import reliance because of unreported investor purchases; the Treasury holds 8,130 t (USGS MCS 2026).
EU	Low	0.9%	4.2%	5.7%	+$5.04 bn	No	Not on the EU critical list; Italy (jewellery) and Germany (investment) are large importers, and the end-of-life recycling input rate is only 5% (EU CRM 2023).
India	High	0.1%	10.3%	0.0%	−$57.6 bn	No	Near-total import dependence: 721 t worth $72.0 billion in FY2025-26, against mine output of about 1-2 t at Hutti; import duty rose from 6% to 15% in May 2026; the RBI held 880.5 t in March 2026.
China	Medium	11.3%	18.4%	2.5%	−$90.4 bn	Yes	Largest miner (380 t, 2025e, USGS) and also the second-largest importer by value in 2024 at $102.7 billion (18.4% of world imports, UN Comtrade).
Japan	Low	0.1%	0.1%	3.6%	+$17.3 bn	No	Net exporter of refined gold from recycling and refining, with 2024 exports of $17.8 billion against imports of $0.5 billion (UN Comtrade).
Latin America	Low	16.7%	0.1%	5.8%	+$28.7 bn	no list	Exporter: Mexico (140 t), Peru (110 t) and Brazil (80 t) mined about 330 t in 2025e (USGS); Peru exported $12.8 billion in 2024 (UN Comtrade).
Middle East	High	0.7%	2.5%	0.4%	−$12.0 bn	no list	Dubai is a major refining and trading hub (the UAE does not report to Comtrade); Turkey ($17.1 billion) and Saudi Arabia ($8.2 billion) were large importers in 2024.
Australia	Low	8.5%	1.2%	4.7%	+$17.0 bn	No	Third-largest miner (280 t, 2025e) with 13,000 t of reserves (USGS); exported $23.6 billion in 2024 (UN Comtrade).

Exposure rating: High when the region is a net importer whose import share is at least three times its share of world output (or, for farm goods, it produces under 70% of what it consumes); Medium for other net importers (or 70-95% self-sufficiency), raised to High when world supply is highly concentrated in another country; Low for net exporters or self-sufficient regions. Net importer status uses tonnage where reported, otherwise value. Output: World Mining Data, 2024. Trade: UN Comtrade 2024 (EU = sum of member states, including intra-EU trade). Critical lists: US 2025, EU 2024/1252, India 2023, China 2016 strategic minerals, Japan METI, Australia 2024.

Gold is not on the EU, US 2025 or India 2023 critical lists; the EU scores its supply risk at 0.4 and economic importance at 2.4. Mining is unconcentrated, only about 15% comes as a by-product, and the huge above-ground stock acts as a buffer. Electronics take only about 7% of consumption, and USGS notes that gold-clad base metals, palladium, platinum and silver can substitute. Gold's strategic role is monetary: central banks hold it as a reserve asset that sits outside other countries' financial systems.

EU 2023 Not critical US 2025 list No India 2023 list No Production HHI 489 unconcentrated

EU 2023 assessment

Chart: EU 2023 criticality: supply risk against economic importance

Each dot is a material assessed by the EU in 2023. The shaded corner is the critical zone (supply risk ≥ 1.0, economic importance ≥ 2.8). Gold: supply risk 0.4, economic importance 2.4. EU import reliance, extraction 0% EU recycling input rate 5%

Substitutes

Gold-clad base metals in electronics and jewellery; palladium, platinum and silver