Graphite: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
Natural flake graphite comes mostly from China, Mozambique and Madagascar, while synthetic graphite is made from petroleum needle coke. Battery anodes and steelmaking electrodes drive demand, and Chinese export controls shape supply.
Proxy US producer price index: carbon and graphite products index, BLS base period · monthly, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026There is no free public price for graphite itself, so this tab uses the closest public series as a stand-in. Read the numbers as an indication, not as the price of this exact item.
What its price moves with
Selected linkGraphite and Steel
Monthly changes 0.00 little or none correlation 12-month changes -0.15 little or none correlation Last 5 years -0.06 monthly changes Lead or lag none No clear lead or lag Price function, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 Graphite ≈ 20.4 × (Steel)0.41 R² 0.28 On this fit, a 10% higher steel price goes with a 4.0% higher graphite price over the long run. Units: index, BLS base period and index, BLS base period. The fit is loose, so treat the function as a rough guide.Chart: Graphite and Steel prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, log scale
Both prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size.Chart: Graphite price against Steel price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line
Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2006), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic.Nearly every lithium-ion battery anode is made of natural or synthetic graphite, so battery production is the fastest-growing demand driver, and China dominates anode processing. Anode materials have no separate price series here.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.Electric arc furnaces melt scrap using large graphite electrodes that are consumed as they run, so electric steelmaking drives synthetic graphite demand. The proxy index shows no monthly correlation (0.00) with US steel, and yearly changes are slightly negative (-0.15).
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsSynthetic graphite and electrodes are made from needle coke, produced from refinery residues such as decant oil, so refinery output and oil prices affect costs. The proxy index barely tracks refining: monthly correlation is -0.03.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsBoth LFP and NMC lithium-ion cells use graphite anodes, so battery output pulls on graphite demand. The US battery index and the graphite products index barely move together (0.03 monthly), as both are broad US price measures.
little or none co-movement month to month · 243 months Show chartsSilicon is being blended into graphite anodes to store more lithium, and could replace part of the graphite in high-energy cells. For now it is a small addition rather than a replacement.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.How to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.