Lead: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
Lead is traded on the LME. Most of it goes into lead-acid batteries for cars, motorbikes and backup power, and much supply is recycled from old batteries, so scrap collection matters as much as mining.
Market price World Bank Pink Sheet: Lead $/mt · monthly, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026What its price moves with
Selected linkLead and Zinc
Monthly changes 0.59 moderate correlation 12-month changes 0.59 moderate correlation Last 5 years 0.60 monthly changes Lead or lag none No clear lead or lag Price function, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 Lead ≈ 340.4 × (Zinc)0.23 R² 0.09 On this fit, a 10% higher zinc price goes with a 2.2% higher lead price over the long run. Units: $/mt and $/mt. The fit is loose, so treat the function as a rough guide.Chart: Lead and Zinc prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, log scale
Both prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size.Chart: Lead price against Zinc price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line
Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2006), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic.Lead and zinc come from the same ore bodies and smelting complexes, so mine supply of each depends on the other. Monthly moves correlate at 0.59 and yearly moves at 0.59, even though zinc follows steel and lead follows batteries.
moderate co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsLead-acid batteries take the large majority of lead, and battery makers pass metal costs on. The US battery price index adjusts slowly and on its own schedule, so monthly moves show no correlation (-0.02) while yearly changes correlate at 0.43.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsLead ores often carry silver, and lead refineries are major silver producers, so silver credits support lead mine economics. Monthly moves correlate at 0.36 and yearly at 0.38, with 0.45 in the last five years.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsLead shares exchanges, buyers and the global industrial cycle with copper. Monthly changes correlate at 0.60 and yearly at 0.68, more than lead's direct battery link, showing how much of base metal pricing comes from broad macro flows.
moderate co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsLead-acid batteries use dilute sulphuric acid as electrolyte, and lead smelters capture acid as a by-product. Neither use is big enough to tie the prices: monthly correlation is 0.06, and yearly changes even run slightly negative (-0.12).
little or none co-movement month to month · 225 months Show chartsAntimony hardens lead for battery grids and ammunition, and much antimony is recovered when lead is smelted or recycled. Antimony has no public price series here, but its recent shortage has raised costs for battery makers.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.How to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.