Lead: Cycles

Why lead is the sleepy one among base metals

Lead averaged $1,873 a tonne in September 2026, 4% below a year earlier and 17% below five years earlier. It has stayed in a narrow ten-year band of $1,626 to $2,584, far below its post-2000 high of $3,720. In real 2010 dollars the 2025 average of $1,690 was the lowest since at least 2010. Lead lacks a growth story. Scrap supply follows battery replacement, which is steady, and lithium-ion batteries are slowly displacing lead-acid in vehicles (Nassar et al.). Demand comes mainly from replacing car batteries.

Lead price

Chart: Lead monthly price

Chart: Lead annual real price

US price, North American refined lead (Platts)

Super-cycles in lead

Lead has joined the broad commodity booms but has little growth story of its own. Demand rides on car and two-wheeler fleets and battery replacement, and recycling supplies most refined metal, so supply responds to scrap flows as well as mining. The big moves came in the late-1970s inflation and in the 2003-2007 China boom, when mine supply lagged and prices rose nearly ninefold. Since 2010 lead has sat in a narrow band. In real 2010 dollars the price averaged $2,148/t in 2010 and $1,690/t in 2025, the lowest in that period (World Bank). Lithium-ion is a slow, long-term threat to demand.

1. 1978-1980

   The late-1970s inflation and metals boom lifted all base metals, lead included, before the early-1980s recession and high interest rates crushed demand.

   World Bank price rose from about $662/t (1978 average) to a $1,382/t monthly average (June 1979); the annual average fell to $391/t by 1985.

2. 2003-2008

   China's car, motorcycle and e-bike fleets drove battery demand while mine supply, tied to zinc, lagged. Prices collapsed in the 2008 financial crisis.

   World Bank monthly averages: low $418/t (Oct 2002) to a $3,720/t peak (Oct 2007), then $963/t (Dec 2008).

3. 2009-2011

   Chinese stimulus and restocking drove a quick rebound before the post-boom slowdown.

   Back to a $2,329/t monthly average by Dec 2009; 2011 annual average $2,401/t (World Bank).

4. 2012-2026

   A range-bound market: recycling expanded with the battery fleet, China slowed, and lithium-ion took some uses. Lead traded within roughly $1,600-2,600/t for a decade.

   World Bank monthly averages: low $1,618/t (Nov 2015) and $1,626/t (May 2020); $1,873/t in Sep 2026.

What drives the cycle

• Vehicle fleet and battery replacement. SLI batteries are replaced every few years, so the size of car, truck and two-wheeler fleets drives steady demand.
• Zinc and silver mine economics. Lead is a co-product, so new zinc mines add lead whether or not lead prices are high.
• Battery scrap availability. Secondary lead is most of supply; collection rates and scrap exports (23 million US batteries exported in Jan-Aug 2025) move supply.
• Environmental regulation. Smelter closures, such as the last US primary refinery in 2013, and battery rules change who can produce.
• Lithium-ion substitution. Lithium is replacing lead in standby power, forklifts and some vehicles, capping long-run demand.

Metrics to track