Molybdenum: Criticality

Critical for India, not for the EU or US

What this tab covers How exposed economies are to a supply disruption: the EU, US and India listings, the concentration score, and a quantified exposure for the US, EU, India, China, Japan, Latin America, the Middle East and Australia. Where the EU scored it, a chart of supply risk against economic importance, with import reliance, recycling input and substitutes.

Exposure by region

Region	Exposure	Share of world output	Share of world imports	Share of world exports	Net trade (US$)	On own critical list	Position
US	Low	12.1%	7.9%	18.1%	+$649.9 m	No	Net exporter: mined 40,000 t in 2025 from two primary and seven by-product mines; molybdenum is not on the 2025 US critical list (USGS).
EU	High	0.0%	21.4%	12.3%	−$812.5 m	No	No mine output and 100% import reliant, but not on the EU critical list (supply risk 0.8); the Netherlands is a hub, taking 10% of world ore imports in 2024 (EU CRM 2023; UN Comtrade).
India	High	0.0%	6.6%	0.0%	−$510.9 m	Yes	No mine production; imports oxide and ferromolybdenum for steel, and molybdenum is on India's 2023 critical minerals list.
China	Medium	41.5%	15.5%	8.0%	−$652.5 m	Yes	Largest miner (97,000 t, 2025) and consumer, with 7,800 kt of reserves; also the largest importer of concentrate (15.5% of 2024 imports) and controls exports of powders since February 2025 (USGS; UN Comtrade).
Japan	High	0.0%	10.2%	0.0%	−$792.7 m	Yes	No mine output; imports 10.2% of world ores and concentrates (2024) for specialty steel and chemicals (UN Comtrade).
Latin America	Low	35.9%	15.7%	50.1%	+$2.27 bn	no list	Chile (42,000 t), Peru (39,000 t) and Mexico (17,000 t) mined 38% of world molybdenum in 2025, all as copper by-product (USGS).
Middle East	Low	2.7%	0.0%	0.0%	−$1.02 m	no list	Iran mined about 3,300 t in 2025 and Armenia, nearby, 5,300 t (USGS).
Australia	Low	0.7%	0.0%	1.1%	+$76.5 m	Yes	Small output of 1,000 t in 2025 but 760 kt of reserves (USGS).

Exposure rating: High when the region is a net importer whose import share is at least three times its share of world output (or, for farm goods, it produces under 70% of what it consumes); Medium for other net importers (or 70-95% self-sufficiency), raised to High when world supply is highly concentrated in another country; Low for net exporters or self-sufficient regions. Net importer status uses tonnage where reported, otherwise value. Output: World Mining Data, 2024. Trade: UN Comtrade 2024 (EU = sum of member states, including intra-EU trade). Critical lists: US 2025, EU 2024/1252, India 2023, China 2016 strategic minerals, Japan METI, Australia 2024.

Molybdenum sits in a middle zone. It is on India's 2023 list but not the US 2025 or EU 2023 lists. EU scores are supply risk 0.8 and economic importance 6.7, with 100% import reliance at both stages. The main risk is by-product dependence: about half of supply rides on copper mining. Its companionality varied between 47% and 75% from 1985 to 2013 (Nassar et al.). China dominates mining and set export controls in 2025. Substitution is limited: boron, chromium, niobium and vanadium can partly replace it in alloy steels.

EU 2023 Not critical US 2025 list No India 2023 list Yes Production HHI 2,355 moderately concentrated

EU 2023 assessment

Chart: EU 2023 criticality: supply risk against economic importance

Each dot is a material assessed by the EU in 2023. The shaded corner is the critical zone (supply risk ≥ 1.0, economic importance ≥ 2.8). Molybdenum: supply risk 0.8, economic importance 6.7. EU import reliance, extraction 100% EU import reliance, processing 100% EU recycling input rate 30%

Substitutes

Little substitution in steels; boron, chromium, niobium and vanadium in alloy steels; tungsten in tool steels; graphite, tantalum and tungsten in furnace refractories