Molybdenum: Cycles
Why by-product supply gives molybdenum an unusual cycle
What this tab covers Price history and what drives booms and busts, including this commodity's super-cycles, the drivers behind them and the metrics to track. It charts monthly prices (World Bank) with a switch to inflation-adjusted annual prices; where there is no World Bank series it uses USGS US prices.Molybdenum has no exchange price; the US reference is Argus's molybdic oxide assessment, reported by USGS. It rose from $35.62 per kilogram in 2021 to $54.32 in 2023, then $47.72 in 2024 and about $51 in 2025. By-product supply makes the cycle unusual. When copper booms, molybdenum output rises whatever its own price; when molybdenum is dear, by-product supply cannot easily respond (Tilton & Guzmán). Primary mines are the swing supply, idling in slumps and restarting in booms. One idled Idaho mine is due to restart in 2027.
US price, US molybdic oxide, 57% Mo (Argus)
2021 35.6 2022 41.7 2023 54.3 2024 47.7 2025 51.0 dollars per kilogram. USGS MCS 2026; 2025 is an estimate.Super-cycles in molybdenum
Molybdenum is a classic boom-bust minor metal. For decades one US company, Amax, set a producer price; that ended as Chilean by-product supply grew and quotations passed to traders, and an LME contract started in 2010 (Radetzki and Warell). China's share of mine output rose from 20% in 2000 to 42% in 2013 (Humphreys). Because so much supply comes from copper mines, molybdenum supply can surge when copper is booming, independent of steel demand. A long annual price series was not in the sources used; USGS reports US molybdic oxide at $35.62/kg in 2021, $54.32/kg in 2023 and $51/kg in 2025.
- 2000-2013
China's steel boom drove demand, and China became the largest producer, lifting output from 27 kt to 111 kt (Humphreys). China's export restrictions led to a WTO case filed in 2012 by the US, EU and Japan, which China lost; restrictions ended in January 2015 (Radetzki and Warell).
Annual price data for this period were not available in the sources used
- 2021-2023
Strong steel and energy-sector demand met flat by-product supply from ageing copper mines with falling grades.
US molybdic oxide rose from $35.62/kg (2021) to $41.72/kg (2022) and $54.32/kg (2023), up 52% in two years (USGS, Argus)
- 2024-2025
Prices eased in 2024, then recovered as China placed molybdenum powders under export control in February 2025 and US mine output rose 18%.
$47.72/kg in 2024 and about $51/kg in 2025, up 7% (USGS)
What drives the cycle
- Copper mine output and grades. About half of supply is a copper by-product, so copper investment decides molybdenum supply.
- Chinese steel and stainless output. China used about half of world molybdenum in Q1 2025 (38,500 t of 77,400 t, IMOA).
- Oil, gas and power capex. Pipelines, LNG, refineries and power plants use molybdenum alloy steels and stainless.
- Fuel-quality rules. Hydrotreating catalysts for low-sulphur fuels use molybdenum.
- Chinese export controls. Controls on powders from 2025 and earlier export quotas affect non-Chinese supply chains.
Metrics to track
| Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly world molybdenum production and use | Shows balance by region | International Molybdenum Association (IMOA) quarterly statistics |
| Copper miners' molybdenum guidance | By-product supply outlook | Freeport-McMoRan, Codelco, Antofagasta, Southern Copper quarterly reports |
| Chinese molybdenum concentrate and FeMo prices | China is half the market | Asian Metal; SMM; Fastmarkets |
| World crude and stainless steel output | Main demand base | World Steel Association monthly; Worldstainless |
| Chinese export licences for molybdenum items | Policy risk | China Ministry of Commerce announcements |