Nitrogen (ammonia): Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
Urea, the most traded nitrogen fertiliser, is made from ammonia, which comes from natural gas or, in China, coal. Prices follow gas costs, Chinese export curbs, Indian import tenders and planting seasons in the Americas and South Asia.
Market price World Bank Pink Sheet: Urea $/mt · monthly, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026What its price moves with
Selected linkNitrogen (ammonia) and Natural gas
Monthly changes 0.18 little or none correlation 12-month changes 0.70 strong correlation Last 5 years 0.30 monthly changes Lead or lag none No clear lead or lag Price function, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 Nitrogen (ammonia) ≈ 101.8 × (Natural gas)0.51 R² 0.63 On this fit, a 10% higher natural gas price goes with a 5.0% higher nitrogen (ammonia) price over the long run. Units: $/mt and $/mmbtu.Chart: Nitrogen (ammonia) and Natural gas prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, log scale
Both prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size.Chart: Nitrogen (ammonia) price against Natural gas price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line
Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2006), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic.Gas supplies both the hydrogen and the heat for ammonia, so it dominates a urea plant's cash cost, and European plant closures set world prices when gas spikes. Exporters in the Gulf and Russia use cheaper gas, so monthly moves correlate at only 0.18 and yearly moves at 0.70.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsUrea is made by reacting ammonia with carbon dioxide, so the two prices are tied by cost. The proxy is a US nitrogen fertiliser index that covers ammonia; it correlates at 0.27 monthly and 0.82 yearly, with urea tending to lead by about a month.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsDAP contains nitrogen as well as phosphate and is bought by the same farmers in the same seasons, so the two fertiliser prices move together: monthly changes correlate at 0.45 and yearly changes at 0.80, among urea's strongest links.
moderate co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsMaize needs more nitrogen than most crops, so high grain prices encourage heavier urea use and more planting. Fertiliser buying is seasonal and planned ahead, so monthly moves barely correlate (0.06) while yearly changes correlate at 0.60.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsMuch of China's ammonia and urea is made by coal gasification, so coal sets the cost of the world's largest producer, and Beijing's export quotas decide how much reaches world markets. Monthly moves correlate at 0.22 and yearly moves at 0.68.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsHow to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.