Nitrogen (ammonia): Criticality

On no critical list, yet it feeds billions

What this tab covers How exposed economies are to a supply disruption: the EU, US and India listings, the concentration score, and a quantified exposure for the US, EU, India, China, Japan, Latin America, the Middle East and Australia. Where the EU scored it, a chart of supply risk against economic importance, with import reliance, recycling input and substitutes.

Exposure by region

Region	Exposure	Share of world output	Share of world imports	Share of world exports	Net trade (US$)	On own critical list	Position
US	High	–	11.6%	4.2%	−$2.36 bn	No	Produced 14.0 Mt N of ammonia in 2025 with 5% net import reliance, importing mostly from Canada and Trinidad; it still took 10.2% of world urea imports by value in 2024 (USGS 2026; Comtrade).
EU	High	–	17.6%	15.5%	−$2.04 bn	No	Germany, the Netherlands and Poland each make about 2 Mt N a year (USGS 2025e), but high gas costs make EU plants the world's marginal producers; nitrogen is not on the EU critical raw materials list.
India	High	–	11.8%	0.1%	−$3.12 bn	No	Joint second-largest producer at 15 Mt N (USGS 2025e), yet the second-largest urea importer by value (11.9% in 2024) and third for ammonia (11.6%); imports reached 10.38 Mt urea in FY2026.
China	Low	–	0.7%	0.8%	−$61.1 m	No	Largest producer at 49 Mt N (about 31% of the world), mostly from coal (USGS 2026; IEA 2021); exports are rationed by quota and were about 4.9 Mt of urea in 2025 (Reuters).
Japan	Low	–	0.9%	0.2%	−$199.3 m	No	Not a significant producer in USGS tables; imports ammonia and urea and is investing in fuel ammonia through JERA and Mitsui's stake in CF's Blue Point project.
Latin America	High	–	19.7%	9.1%	−$3.71 bn	no list	Brazil is the largest urea importer (16.2% of world value in 2024); Trinidad and Tobago makes 3.3 Mt N and leads ammonia exports, though Nutrien shut its plant there in late 2025.
Middle East	Low	–	0.6%	23.0%	+$3.77 bn	no list	Saudi Arabia (5.2 Mt N), Iran (4.8), Egypt (4.0), Qatar (3.0) and Oman (2.0) are large producers (USGS 2026), Gulf states and Egypt lead urea exports (Comtrade 2024), and about 40% of seaborne urea passes Hormuz (Kpler; farmdoc daily 2026).
Australia	High	–	5.5%	0.6%	−$1.36 bn	No	Makes 1.5 Mt N (USGS 2025e) but took 8.0% of world urea imports by value in 2024; high 2026 urea prices cut wheat area by about 12% (Kpler).

Exposure rating: High when the region is a net importer whose import share is at least three times its share of world output (or, for farm goods, it produces under 70% of what it consumes); Medium for other net importers (or 70-95% self-sufficiency), raised to High when world supply is highly concentrated in another country; Low for net exporters or self-sufficient regions. Net importer status uses tonnage where reported, otherwise value. Output: n/a. Trade: UN Comtrade 2024 (EU = sum of member states, including intra-EU trade). Critical lists: US 2025, EU 2024/1252, India 2023, China 2016 strategic minerals, Japan METI, Australia 2024.

Nitrogen is not on the EU, US 2025 or India 2023 critical lists, because the raw material is air. Yet it is arguably the most important input to the food supply. Conway (pdf p. 265) notes that only about 2% of world gas output feeds fertiliser plants, yet nearly half the world's people depend on it. USGS sees no substitute for nitrogen as a plant nutrient. The risk lies in gas supply and export curbs. Green ammonia would need vast electricity: one UK plant would absorb a giant wind farm's output (Conway, pdf p. 329).

EU 2023 Not assessed US 2025 list No India 2023 list No US net import reliance, 2025 5% share of apparent consumption

Substitutes

None for nitrogen as a plant nutrient or in explosives and blasting agents