Sugar: Criticality

Two weak points: Brazil's dominance and India's policy swings

Two weak points: Brazil's dominance and India's policy swings What this tab covers How exposed economies are to a supply disruption: the EU, US and India listings, the concentration score, and a quantified exposure for the US, EU, India, China, Japan, Latin America, the Middle East and Australia. Where the EU scored it, a chart of supply risk against economic importance, with import reliance, recycling input and substitutes.

Exposure by region

Region	Exposure	Share of world output	Share of world imports	Share of world exports	Net trade (US$)	On own critical list	Position
US	High	1.6%	8.8%	1.0%	−$2.27 bn	No	Protected market with its own beet and cane output (9.28 million short tons in 2025/26) plus 3.1 million short tons of imports under quotas and from Mexico; 8.8% of world import value in 2024.
EU	Low	0.0%	15.2%	15.2%	+$937.7 m	No	Large beet producer (Germany, France and Poland among top beet growers) and a mid-sized exporter (France 4.4%, Germany 3.3% of 2024 export value).
India	Low	23.4%	5.9%	6.1%	+$454.7 m	No	Second-largest cane grower (23.4% of 2024 cane) and third-largest exporter by value in 2024 (6.1%), with exports set by annual quota (1.5 Mt for 2025-26).
China	Medium	5.3%	7.9%	0.3%	−$2.29 bn	No	Grows 5.3% of world cane but imports 7.9% of world sugar by value (2024) and holds state reserves.
Japan	High	0.1%	2.5%	0.0%	−$740.1 m	No	Small producer (about 0.74 Mt) and importer (about 1.21 Mt, 2.0% of world imports) in 2026/27 (USDA PSD); not among the top six importers by value in 2024 (UN Comtrade).
Latin America	Low	49.4%	4.5%	59.0%	+$20.0 bn	no list	Brazil dominates world exports (51.4% of 2024 value); Mexico produces about 5.3 Mt and exports mainly to the US (WASDE).
Middle East	High	0.5%	8.2%	1.7%	−$1.88 bn	no list	Large net importer, about 9.0 Mt or 15.4% of world imports in 2026/27 (USDA PSD), much of it raw sugar for destination refineries in the Gulf.
Australia	Low	1.5%	0.0%	0.0%	+$0	No	Cane exporter from Queensland, shipping about 3.6 Mt of its 4.2 Mt output in 2026/27 (USDA PSD); not among the top six exporters by value in 2024 (UN Comtrade).

Exposure rating: High when the region is a net importer whose import share is at least three times its share of world output (or, for farm goods, it produces under 70% of what it consumes); Medium for other net importers (or 70-95% self-sufficiency), raised to High when world supply is highly concentrated in another country; Low for net exporters or self-sufficient regions. Net importer status uses tonnage where reported, otherwise value. Output: FAOSTAT, 2024. Trade: UN Comtrade 2024 (EU = sum of member states, including intra-EU trade). Self-sufficiency: USDA PSD 2026/27. Critical lists: US 2025, EU 2024/1252, India 2023, China 2016 strategic minerals, Japan METI, Australia 2024.

Sugar is on neither the US 2025 nor the India 2023 critical list. Its importance lies in food prices, rural incomes and fuel policy. Supply has two weak points: the concentration of exports in Brazil, and Indian policy swings between export subsidies and bans. Weather risk is real but diversified, because northern beet offsets tropical cane. Substitutes are plentiful, including corn syrups and intense sweeteners. Cuba shows the extreme case: Blas & Farchy report its output falling from 8 to 3.3 million tonnes between 1989-90 and 1994-95.

EU 2023 Not assessed US 2025 list No India 2023 list No Production HHI 2,169 moderately concentrated