Sugar: Cycles

A long slide in real prices since 2011

The World Bank world sugar price was $0.41 per kg in September 2026, up from $0.35 a year earlier but below $0.43 five years ago. The ten-year range was $0.23 to $0.58, and the peak since 2000 was $0.65. In real 2010 dollars prices have trended down, from $0.52 in 2011 to $0.32 in 2025. Cycles run through the Brazilian harvest, the Indian monsoon, ethanol parity and oil prices. Because cane is ratooned for several years, plantings respond with a lag, producing classic multi-year gluts and shortages.

Sugar, world price

Chart: Sugar, world monthly price

Chart: Sugar, world annual real price

Super-cycles in sugar

Sugar has some of the most violent price cycles of any commodity. Cane is ratooned for several years, so plantings respond with a lag, and most output is sold in protected home markets, leaving a thin and volatile world market. The World Bank world price spiked from about $0.07/kg in 1970 to $1.24/kg in November 1974, collapsed to $0.06/kg in 1985, and peaked at $0.65/kg in January 2011. In real 2010 dollars the annual price fell from $0.52/kg in 2011 to $0.32/kg in 2025. Since the 2000s Brazil's ethanol link has tied sugar more closely to oil prices, and India's export policy has become a second swing factor. International sugar agreements tried to manage prices and failed (Radetzki and Wårell 2021).

1. 1972-1974

   Low stocks, poor harvests, the oil shock and the general commodity boom drove the biggest spike on record.

   World Bank monthly average from about $0.07/kg (Feb 1970) to $1.24/kg (Nov 1974)

2. 1980-1985

   A second spike on low stocks and high oil prices was followed by a glut as EU export subsidies and new capacity flooded the market.

   monthly average $0.89/kg (Oct 1980) to $0.06/kg (May 1985)

3. 2000-2004

   Brazilian expansion after deregulation and subsidised EU exports produced large surpluses; Brazil, Australia and Thailand challenged EU subsidies at the WTO.

   monthly average about $0.11/kg (Mar 2000) and $0.13/kg (Jan 2004); Geman (2005) puts raw sugar near 6 cents/lb in early 2004

4. 2009-2011

   Indian drought turned India into an importer while Brazil's mills favoured ethanol; prices reached their highest level since the early 1980s.

   monthly average $0.65/kg (Jan 2011), then a slide to $0.25/kg (Aug 2015)

5. 2020-2023

   Covid lows were followed by El Nino weather, Indian export curbs and high energy prices.

   monthly average $0.23/kg (Apr 2020) to $0.58/kg (Sep 2023)

6. 2024-2026

   A return to global surplus (ISO: 1.2 Mt in 2025/26) and larger Indian crops pushed prices down before a partial recovery.

   monthly averages: $0.50/kg (Feb 2024) down to $0.31/kg (Feb 2026), then $0.41/kg (Sep 2026)

What drives the cycle

• Brazil's sugar-ethanol mix. Mills switch cane to whichever product pays more, so Petrobras petrol prices, Brazilian blending rules and the real exchange rate set the marginal world supply.
• Indian monsoon and policy. India's output swings by several million tonnes with rainfall, and export quotas and ethanol diversion decide how much reaches the world market.
• Weather in Thailand and Brazil (ENSO). El Nino droughts cut Thai and Indian cane; dry spells in Sao Paulo cut Brazilian yields and sugar content.
• Crude oil prices. Higher oil raises ethanol parity in Brazil and India, pulling cane away from sugar.
• Protection and subsidies. Tariffs, quotas and support prices in the EU, US, India and China keep most sugar off the world market, so small shifts in surplus move world prices a lot.

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