Sulfur: Cycles

A price that fell by three-quarters, then quadrupled

There is no World Bank price. The US f.o.b. value swung from $90/t in 2021 to $178/t in 2022, collapsed to $46/t in 2024, then jumped to about $180/t in 2025. Tampa contract prices rose from $116 to $310 per long ton during 2025, the highest since mid-2022. This volatility is classic by-product behaviour. Supply barely responds to price, because it follows refining and gas output. Demand follows fertiliser affordability and metal leaching. New nickel high-pressure acid leach projects are adding demand.

US price, Elemental sulfur, average unit value, f.o.b. mine and/or plant

Super-cycles in sulfur

Sulfur has some of the most violent price swings of any commodity, because supply is a fixed by-product and demand comes in waves. Prices can fall to almost nothing when stocks pile up and multiply ten-fold when buyers scramble. Episodes in 2007-08, 2021-22 and 2024-26 each saw prices rise five to ten times and, in the first two, collapse within a year. The current episode combines a structural demand shift (Indonesian nickel, LFP) with a supply shock (the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in 2026). There is no long-run upward trend: oversupply returns whenever demand pauses.

1. 2007-2009

   Chinese phosphate demand, Canadian rail strikes and stranded stocks drove a spike, then the financial crisis and a Chinese import halt crushed it.

   From $45/t (Jan 2007) to over $700/t in 2008; Vancouver FOB fell from $700 to $50/t by Q2 2009 and some sulfur sold at $25/t, with Tampa taking shipments at $5/t in July 2009 (Hydrocarbon Engineering, 2009)

2. 2021-2023

   Post-Covid fertiliser demand and the Russia-Ukraine war lifted prices; recession fears and weaker phosphate demand reversed them.

   US average unit value rose from $90.40/t (2021) to $177.80/t (2022), then fell to $58.90/t (2023) and $46.42/t (2024) (USGS MCS 2026)

3. 2024-2026

   Indonesian HPAL nickel and Chinese LFP added over 8 Mt of demand, then the US-Iran war from 28 Feb 2026 closed Hormuz and stranded Gulf supply. Russia and China restricted exports.

   CFR Indonesia rose from $101/t (Jul 2024) to $554/t (Jan 2026) (Argus); Platts FOB Middle East went from $273/t (5 Feb 2026) to $469/t (30 Apr 2026); Tampa contract rose from $116/long t (Jan 2025) to a record $705/long t (Q3 2026); US Gulf spot reached $1,100-1,150/t FOB (Jul 2026) (USGS, S&P Global, Argus)

What drives the cycle

• Phosphate fertiliser demand. Takes about 60% of sulfur. Crop prices, subsidies in India and buying by OCP and Chinese producers set the base load.
• Metal leaching, especially Indonesian HPAL. Acid use for nickel rose from 3.5 Mt in 2021 to 16 Mt in 2025. Each new HPAL plant adds about 1 Mt of sulfur demand per 400 kt Ni (SMM).
• Gas and refinery output. Supply follows sour-gas projects (2.1 Mt new Gulf supply expected in 2026, SMM) and refinery runs, not price.
• Gulf geopolitics and shipping. Over 45% of world supply sits in the Mideast Gulf. Closure of Hormuz in 2026 stranded it and pushed freight to $140-200/t (Argus).
• Chinese import and export policy. China is the largest importer (9.6 Mt in 2025); its stock levels and export curbs swing the world price.

Metrics to track