Thallium: Cycles
Why this by-product price stays so steady
What this tab covers Price history and what drives booms and busts, including this commodity's super-cycles, the drivers behind them and the metrics to track. It charts monthly prices (World Bank) with a switch to inflation-adjusted annual prices; where there is no World Bank series it uses USGS US prices.The USGS price for 99.99% granules in 100-gram lots moved from $8,400/kg in 2021 to $9,500 in 2024 and $9,300 in 2025. That is a narrow range for a by-product. Demand is small and slowly shrinking in medicine, where technetium-99m has displaced thallium-201. Supply does not respond to thallium prices, because the money in a zinc smelter is in zinc. A downturn in zinc smelting, or regulation that discourages handling toxic residues, would matter more than any change in demand.
US price, Thallium metal, 99.99% granules, 100-gram lots (average of three retailers)
2021 8,400 2022 9,400 2023 8,800 2024 9,500 2025 9,300 dollars per kilogram. USGS MCS 2026; 2025 is an estimate.Super-cycles in thallium
Thallium has no super-cycle. It is a very small market, about 10 tonnes a year, with prices quoted only for small lots by retailers. Long-run demand has fallen as toxicity rules ended its use in rodenticides and insecticides and as technetium-99m replaced thallium-201 in most heart scans. Prices of high-purity granules have been roughly flat at $8,400-9,500/kg in 2021-2025. Supply depends on a few smelters in China, Kazakhstan and Russia.
- Mid-20th century to 1980s
Thallium sulphate was widely used as a rodenticide and insecticide until toxicity concerns led most countries to ban it. US domestic thallium production ended in 1981.
no price series in the sources used
- 1990s-2010s
Technetium-99m agents displaced thallium-201 in much of cardiac imaging, cutting medical demand.
no price series in the sources used
- 2021-2025
A thin, stable market with high-purity granules sold in small lots.
99.99% granules (100-g lots) averaged $8,400/kg (2021), $9,400/kg (2022), $8,800/kg (2023), $9,500/kg (2024) and $9,300/kg (2025e) (USGS MCS 2026)
What drives the cycle
- Toxicity regulation. Strict controls (the US drinking-water limit is 2 parts per billion) shrink uses and raise handling costs.
- Nuclear medicine practice. Shift from thallium-201 to technetium-99m and PET tracers cuts demand.
- Radiation-detection demand. Security screening and medical imaging use thallium-doped scintillators.
- Smelter recovery decisions in China, Kazakhstan and Russia. A handful of plants set world supply.
Metrics to track
| Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it |
|---|---|---|
| Thallium metal price (99.99%, small lots) | Only public price | USGS MCS (retailer survey) |
| US thallium trade (unwrought, scrap, articles) | Shows flows and misclassification | US Census Bureau; USGS MCS |
| Thallium-201 procedure volumes | Medical demand trend | Nuclear medicine society and isotope supplier reports |
| Zinc smelter output in China and Kazakhstan | Host supply | International Lead and Zinc Study Group |